You’ve seen what I think the endgame in Ukraine will be, George Friedman writes that he sees another sort of negotiated endgame between the warring parties. I don’t always agree with Friedman but he is almost always worth reading, his views worth considering.
Two things became unlikely: that Russia would destroy the Ukrainian army and occupy Ukraine, and that Ukraine’s army would drive Russia out of Ukraine. The only logical step is a negotiated settlement. The question is what that settlement might consist of.
Putin used Wagner as a separate force because he understood the limits of his enemy. When that blew up in his face, he realized what I missed: that his military was in no position to launch a final assault, and that he was in no position to negotiate.
The Russians must decide whether to double down on the Black Sea strategy, seek another flank to hit or accept a settlement that gains them little but does not humiliate them. It is a question of how far Putin’s hubris goes and how secure he is.
If Putin feels insecure, then the battlefield stalemate continues until “the bear” tires and goes home. That’s my guess, but it is only a guess, one of several possibilities.
