Writing at Silver Bulletin, numbers guy Nate Silver indicates that his model says Trump is the favorite at this point. Yes the race is close, but not a toss up.
Silver admits he'd prefer a Biden win, which makes his prediction more credible, in my eyes. One thing about which he is very clear is that national polls don't tell us much. Winning the presidency is a matter of winning enough states to accrue at least 270 electors, so state by state polling is key.
This is a long column and Silver gets really deep in the weeds of prediction and modeling. Honestly, most readers will find their eyes glazing as they read it.
