Wednesday, January 15, 2025

About Drone Warfare

Conventional wisdom holds that artillery is "the queen of battle," the most effective weapon of war. Given modern drone technology, the lobbing of explosives at a distant enemy is evolving.

Ballistic artillery shells travel in straight line arcs and a combination of radar and computers can determine their launch point within a few feet by tracking the arc back to its origin. This enables what is called "counter-battery fire" where your own artillery fires at the opponent's guns which are shelling you.

The artilleryman's response to counter-battery fire is what is called "shoot and scoot," where you rapidly fire a few rounds and quickly move several hundred yards (or more) away. Such movement attracts unhelpful attention by the enemy but moving targets are harder to hit and counter-battery fire aimed at the point from which you fired falls on empty dirt.

An Xtra makes an interesting point about drone use in warfare, especially explosive "suicide" drones as a substitute for artillery. Drones almost certainly do not travel in straight arcs from launch to target, as such backtracking them and firing at the launch point may not be possible from the battlefield. 

Possibly the only counter to a drone launch point is satellite-based "look down" radar that sees launches happen and directs counter-battery fire at the launch site. 

Relatively speaking drones are cheap, counter-drone missiles exist but are expensive, the disparity being something like $1000 vs. $500,000. Actually a large model airplane with a grenade or other explosive as weapon can be a drone. Missiles which can track and shoot down drones are too costly to expend hundreds of them per day. 

Because of the cost disparity launching too many drones to overwhelm a fancy anti-drone system is feasible. To date, no one has figured out how to cope with drone swarms. Launch several drones at a target and at least 1-2 are likely to penetrate whatever AA fire is directed at them and detonate on the target. 

It is an interesting dilemma. Poor assailants can tie up or defeat expensive defenses with cheap drones. If you're a poor assailant you view this as a boon, if you are a wealthy fat target you hate this reality a great deal. This is the dilemma at the mouth of the Red Sea posed by the Houthis.