News Not All Bad

On Wednesday we wrote that the western powers really had to get serious about those “tough economic sanctions” they’d promised if Putin attacked Ukraine. I am both happy and a little surprised to see that they have actually done some of what they promised.

Apparently most flights into and out of Russia have been shut down, although the pajama boy who governs Canada hasn’t yet joined that effort. For now NordStream 2 remains off line, and at least some interference with Russia’s access to the Swift financial network will occur. 

When Trump left office, we were exporting oil, which is to say, producing more than we consumed. Now we import oil, because of Biden’s pandering to environmentalists.

Russia is a major funder of the environmental movement in western nations, with the aim of suppressing our oil and gas production and supporting the market for Russian petroleum production. 

The U.S. buys billions of dollars of Russian oil every year, and so far that “buy” hasn’t been curtailed.  Helping to pay for Russia’s war effort is the fault of Joe Biden and the evil minions who pull his puppet strings.

Later: Sorry, Canada, this story indicates you've joined the Russian flight ban, better late than never. And the EU indicates they will furnish weapons to Ukraine, not clear if it is "sell" or "fund the purchase of," but doesn't appear to be "give."

Ukraine’s Loss, Afghan’s Gain

Some considerable fraction of the $83 billion in U.S. military aid supplied to the Afghan government was still usable equipment, abandoned when we left precipitously. If the U.S. had extracted those billions of dollars of military equipment in Afghanistan, it would have been available to "loan" to Ukraine. 

President Biden is the gift that keeps on giving ... to our enemies. Everyone who voted for him should now feel remorse. Those who don't feel guilt, must wish our country ill. Doing so, if not treason, is certainly treason’s close relative.

Poll: Putin Attacked Because of Biden

Here's how to create heartburn in the West Wing of the White House. Check out the results of a new Harvard Center for American Political Studies (CAPS)-Harris Poll. Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.

[It] found that 62 percent of those polled believed Putin would not be moving against Ukraine if Trump had been president. When looking strictly at the answers of Democrats and Republicans, 85 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of Democrats answered this way.

A majority of Americans polled — 59 percent — also said they believed that the Russian president moved on Ukraine because Putin saw weakness in President Biden.

It's amazing almost 4 in 10 Democrats think Biden's evident weakness encouraged the bully Putin. Will any underling have the courage to show these results to Slow Joe? 

Waiting

Ours is a society where everything is being unnecessarily racialized. Thus I am waiting for the first BIPOC commenter to write or say on camera that - as a war between white people - the invasion of Ukraine is unimportant, although perhaps entertaining.

Possible comments about securing adequate popcorn would be especially gratuitous.

Major Matters

CNBC describes the findings of a recent study by the New York Federal Reserve Bank which looked at starting and mid career salaries earned by college grads with majors in many fields. Engineering and computer science did best, liberal arts and the ever-popular psychology were among the worst. 

The good news for those with majors that start low is that they improve by mid career, but never catch up with the engineers who likewise improve. BTW, some of the lowest paying majors do very little better than someone with a full-time minimum wage job.

If you know young people who might be choosing a field of study, impress upon them the desirability of a major that pays relatively well and for which firms actively recruit. Racking up $100k of college debt to study something “fulfilling” but non remunerative is self-destructive behavior. An apprenticeship in the building trades makes far more sense, and pays better.

We last wrote about this topic some six weeks ago.  Here it is again with similar results, albeit from a different source.

History Comes Knocking

Ever since World War II ended, the leaders of Western Europe have operated like our cartoonish avian friend. As a result, the only European nation with a truly significant military is Russia, although the efforts of Switzerland, the U.K., and France haven't been trivial. 

One supposes the others believed the United States would defend them, so they didn't need to spend the money and inconvenience their people. Now war has again broken out between European nations and none of the neighbors could intervene if they wanted to. 

For decades, U.S. presidents have pestered NATO partners to pull their weight for the common defense. For as many decades they have made polite noises and spent their time and money elsewhere. 

Now they are faced with an actively belligerent Russia while the U.S. is governed by a sad, tired old political hack. Joe Biden didn't amount to much when he still had all his marbles. The spectacle of him abandoning our Afghan ally cannot reassure NATO's other member nations.

Note to Francis Fukuyama: That "arc of history" stuff is bunkum. History appears to be very much alive and thirsting for gore. Perhaps it was on sabbatical when you declared it dead. 

Prognosis

It turns out Putin didn’t blink. He was just more deliberate and less headlong than it first appeared. The conquest of Ukraine will now occur.

His aim will be to unseat the present Ukraine government and install a pro-Russian government more-or-less immune to popular opinion. He will help it set up an effective secret police, purge or kill the most effective anti-Russian voices, and leave, claiming “job done.” 

We know this Russian game plan. It’s what Stalin did in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and the Baltics at the end of World War II. Stalin’s “fig leaf” of international communism is all that will be missing. 

The Answer

We know the answer to my question yesterday, namely would the invasion go beyond the Donbas. The Daily Mail (U.K.) reports Putin's Russia is invading the balance of Ukraine, and people in the capital Kyiv report hearing explosions, most likely bombing or missile strikes.

That being the case, we'd better see some draconian sanctions as well as deniable cyber warfare sent toward Russia. Presumably there will be some negative consequences coming our way as well.

Putin has indirectly threatened nuclear warfare, and has the weapons and delivery systems to make good on that claim. I doubt he is MAD enough to go down that road, MAD being the acronym for mutually assured destruction. If he does, I hope to be far enough from the nearest blast zone to survive, though there are no guarantees.

Strap in and hang on, the next months will be a bumpy ride.

Rick Scott's Eleven Points

Via Politico, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) has released an eleven point plan (scroll down) for the modern GOP. Think of it as the 'grandchild' of the 1994 Newt Gingrich Contract with America. 

Scott stakes out uncompromising positions on patriotism, culture war issues, election security, crime, controlling the border, the family, and America First foreign and domestic policies.

Do yourself a favor, see what Scott has proposed as a Republican agenda. It is bold and will irritate most Democrats and some few Republicans, but I like it ... a lot. 

I think of his plan as aspirational. It’s what he’d like to be able to accomplish if he can assemble a working majority for each of his points.

If it were possible to accomplish even half of Scott's agenda, us "normals" would be ecstatic. The left would absolutely soil themselves while reaching for Thorazine. 

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Afterthought: What isn’t clear is whether his eleven points appeal to a majority of Americans. The “tent” of those who agree with Scott may not be “big” enough, always a consideration in a de facto two party system.

Second Afterthought: Left-leaning Politico believes the Scott manifesto will do the GOP more harm than good, likely the main reason they agreed to post it. Scott is betting they're wrong, Gingrich did well with his.

Ukraine Update

Based on this Wall Street Journal article and other reports I've seen, the question tonight appears to be the following. Will the Russians stop with the Donbas, or will they gather their troops there prior to attacking the entire country? 

I don't think we know the answer yet. Maybe their decision will be influenced by the seriousness of the sanctions imposed on Russia for occupying the Donbas. 

The size of the force they've amassed suggests their appetite is much larger than just the Donbas. It gives them the option to gobble up the rest of the country, if the West seems irresolute in the face of what they've done so far.

Likely scenario: The Russian troop presence will embolden Donbas locals who have been fighting off the Ukraine army. The locals go on the attack, Ukraine regulars respond, and their response will be a pretext for the Russian troops to join the fight. 

We live in interesting times.

Ukraine - What We Know (So Far)

As noted earlier, whatever "invasion" happened in Ukraine would likely occur after the Winter Olympics ended. Sure enough, the Olympics ended on the 20th and it happened on the 21st.

I put invasion in quotes because what happened was far less dramatic (so far) than expected. Russian "peacekeeping" troops moved into the breakaway Donbas region, likely without firing a shot or being opposed.

The Donbas region of Ukraine is made up of two separatist proto-countries named Luhansk and Donetsk. They are largely Russian speaking, and many residents have recently issued passports granting them Russian citizenship.

This region has been in armed revolt against the Ukraine government ever since the last pro-Russian government in Kyiv was overthrown. The national government has had basically no authority in the Donbas. 

Border fighting has continued at low levels between the Ukraine army and the rebels. Ukraine has not made an all-out effort to regain authority in the region.

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From at least one point of view, Putin blinked. He had half his army surrounding Ukraine, nearly guaranteeing a successful takeover of the whole nation. He instead chose the least offensive action possible that avoided the shame of giving up and going home. 

So far he has sent troops into an area where their presence is welcome by most locals. This action is unlikely to generate serious bloodshed; it may be the nothing-burger Biden hinted he could ignore.

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Some have claimed recognizing the independence of the Donbas was the last thing Putin would wish to do. It would reduce the number of Russian speakers in still-independent Ukraine and thus strengthen the majority of those identifying as nationalistic Ukrainians with pro-EU sentiments. Perhaps those claiming this were incorrect?

His actions to date instead mirror what he did in Georgia (the country, not the state). There he supported breakaway provinces which favored Russia. 

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The moves Putin is making in Eastern Ukraine will not help him reach his alleged goal of reestablishing the old Soviet sphere of influence. Perhaps instead his immediate goal is merely to bring together all regions with ethnic Russian populations? 

I am reminded of Hitler absorbing Alsace, Austria and Sudetenland. Hitler wasn't satisfied with uniting the ethnic Germans, he wanted (and conquered) much more before eventually being defeated. With the wisdom of hindsight, Monday-morning quarterbacks concluded Hitler would have been easier to defeat if he had been opposed earlier.

Monday Snark

Writing at PJ Media, Stephen Kruiser coins an alliterative descriptor for the activities of AOC and her Squad. He calls it:

Commie Chick Shtick

I bet you can't say that five times rapidly, without tripping over your tongue.

Asking the Question

I reread the prior post and asked myself the following question. Why Russia has been unable to befriend Ukraine in ways that make the two nations natural allies? Proverbially, you catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. 

Let's explore possible answers to that question. Perhaps it is that, for whatever reasons, Russia cannot match the bourgeois affluence of France and Germany. The higher standard of living in the West might be the draw that entices many Ukranians to identify with the EU.

Perhaps it is Putin's natural affinity for autocrats like Belarus' A. G. Lukashenko. Maybe the people of Ukraine want a multiparty representative government as is common in the EU, not a president-for-life in the style of Russia's Putin.

Maybe Ukraine remembers the Holodomor, the artificially created famine attributed to the Soviet leader Stalin which some say killed 7 million in Ukraine. It was roughly 90 years ago, but the bitterness lasts.

Or just maybe it is because Russia wants the people of Ukraine to be Russian in everything but name, and that desire is only shared by a minority of Ukrainians. A majority of Ukrainians believe they have a separate identity to go with their somewhat separate language.

Actually, all of those are good reasons and perhaps all are partially responsible. Nevertheless, it would seem that a charm offensive would pay more dividends than a military invasion. 

I can't imagine the prospect of repressing an unhappy Ukraine into the indefinite future seems attractive. Putin must view it as the lesser of several bad choices he has.

Russian Motives in Ukraine

RealClearWorld reprints a very interesting discussion of “the world as Russia sees it.” Some key points arise from the study of two maps of Russia and its neighbors. The first is a population density map of the world’s physically largest country.

Russia, however much it purports to be a “Eurasian” country, and despite holding extensive territory in Asia, is fundamentally and will always be a European country. Think of Moscow as the eastern extremity of Europe. Russia has far more in common with Europe than it does with its Asian neighbors, like Japan, China, and Mongolia. Europe’s geopolitics matter to Russia because the vast majority of Russia’s population lives in Europe.

The second map is topographic and makes clear there are no mountain or water barriers of any military consequence between the English Channel and Moscow, an area geographers call the Northern European Plain. European Russia has been invaded repeatedly across this plain, causing great suffering and death they do not forget.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin says things like, “The collapse of the Soviet Union was the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the [previous] century,” he is not bemoaning the fate of the global proletariat (much to Lenin’s dismay). He is lamenting Russia’s loss of its strategic depth – a loss Putin has spent his entire rule attempting to correct. No matter who is President of Russia, no matter what his or her ideology is, Russia has an imperative to expand to the Carpathians either politically, or with military force, to ensure the defensibility of its territory. It always has, and it always will.

Author Jacob Shapiro thinks Putin doesn’t really want to invade Ukraine, but will if he can achieve “strategic depth” in no other way.  We should know soon enough if the author is correct.

Birds of a Feather

Anybody who's listened knows National Public Radio is deep, deep blue - very progressive and liberal. That said, here is an article from NPR about people moving to states where their politics are in the majority that is ... believe it or not ... relatively balanced. 

They report both liberals and conservatives are moving to states, or parts of states, where the dominant local politics are like their own. As longtime COTTonLINE readers know, this is a hobbyhorse I've been 'riding' for years. The DrsC made this sort of move in 2004 and never looked back. Some NPR thoughts:

America is growing more geographically polarized — red ZIP codes are getting redder and blue ZIP codes are becoming bluer. People appear to be sorting.

Political scientist Larry Sabato posted an analysis on Thursday that shows how America's "super landslide" counties have grown over time. Of the nation's total 3,143 counties, the number of super landslide counties — where a presidential candidate won at least 80% of the vote — has jumped from 6% in 2004 to 22% in 2020.

Put another way, Biden won 85% of counties with a Whole Foods and only 32% of counties with a Cracker Barrel.

Regardless of leaning left or right, people don't enjoy feeling like an outlier in their home town. Knowing the neighbors' votes will overwhelm yours, making your vote meaningless, isn't fun. Neither is local and state governments routinely choosing policies of which you disapprove.

Profound Personal Tragedy

Power Line's Scott Johnson shares some words from a new biography of Salmon P. Chase, Abraham Lincoln's Secretary of the Treasury and later Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Author Walter Stahr wrote:

Chase knew profound personal tragedy. By the age of 44, he had lost three wives to untimely deaths. After his third wife succumbed to tuberculosis in 1852, Chase never remarried. He also lost nine siblings and four children. 

My own grandfather buried two wives, and was buried by his third, who was my grandmother. When anyone today tells me they have it tough, I reflect on the almost routine tragedy experienced by those who lived before 1900.

As the life of Chase demonstrates, it wasn't just the poor and downtrodden who experienced the premature death of many loved ones. For all its faults, I'm glad I live in an age of antibiotics and outpatient hip replacements. 

Cold War: Dead or Revived?

Robin Wright has covered the foreign policy beat for 4+ decades, most recently for The New Yorker. Today she takes up the question of whether the Cold War actually ended, back in 1992 when then-President George H. W. Bush announced its death.

Spoiler alert: she reaches no firm conclusion. It turns out whether it ended or not depends on whether one views the Cold War as a clash of ideologies, or as a clash of nations and empires. 

If the Cold War was a fight to the death between Communism and Capitalism, between the dictatorship of the proletariat and freely elected representative governments operating in a multi-party environment, the answer is it is over, Communism lost.

If on the other hand the Cold War was a battle between the Russian empire, aka Soviet Union plus Warsaw Pact versus the West - the U.S. and its NATO allies - then no, it never ended. There was, to be sure, a pause, a lessening of hostilities, but no end. 

Putin has described the fall of the Soviet Union as the "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century." He intends to "put the band back together," to reassemble as much of the old Soviet sphere as he possibly can. He has had some success in Crimea, Georgia, and Belarus. Ukraine - a major prize - appears to be next on his agenda.

Latter-Day Invasion Stripes

As we noted four days ago, the period of maximum risk for an invasion of Ukraine began about three hours ago, when the Winter Olympics ended. If we get through the next week without columns of Russian troops and vehicles entering Ukraine, it probably won’t happen. I have no independent source of information, clearly those who have such data seem to believe Putin will invade. 

British papers have photos of Russian military vehicles marked with a “Z” which are convoying toward the border. Several photos show the Z drawn inside a square box. What makes this symbology particularly interesting is that there is no letter “Z or z” in the Russian alphabet. 

Marking all vehicles with a symbol reminds me of the “invasion stripes” the Allies painted on their aircraft prior to the D Day landings in Normandy. This post explains the D Day rationale - telling friend from foe. It makes even more sense in the modern context since the Ukraine military operates mostly Russian-made vehicles and weapons making it difficult to distinguish attacker from defender units while “on the fly” and splattered with mud. 

A Whiff of Fascism

At the Legal Insurrection website, William A. Jacobson looks at the greater implications of Justin Trudeau's action to require all financial institutions in Canada to freeze the accounts of people identified as protesters in the trucker dispute. See what he wrote. 

He (Trudeau) suspended civil liberties in Canada, targeting peaceful protesters and anyone who supports them. Not because those supporters committed a crime, but because they supported the political opposition to Trudeau’s government.

Trudeau ordered all financial institutions to freeze the assets of his political opposition without court order and with full immunity from liability, and no financial asset was spared. 

Attorney General David Lametti seemed to say on CTV Wednesday that anyone who donated to Freedom Convoy could potentially face seeing their accounts frozen by the federal government.

When fascism comes to America, it will look like Justin Trudeau’s Canada.

Almost everyone today uses direct deposit for paychecks, retirement benefits, dividends, savings, etc., and buys most things via credit or debit card. Freezing accounts means anyone it happens to must almost immediately resort to crime to feed themselves, buy fuel, etc. 

This isn't good; it ignores "innocent until proven guilty" and forces the otherwise innocent into crime. We'd better make sure it can't happen here. It is bad enough happening next door.

A Reminder

The DrsC saw this bumper sticker on a pickup with Utah plates. It clearly enunciates our flyover fears of Californian carpetbagging.