Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Ukraine Update

Based on this Wall Street Journal article and other reports I've seen, the question tonight appears to be the following. Will the Russians stop with the Donbas, or will they gather their troops there prior to attacking the entire country? 

I don't think we know the answer yet. Maybe their decision will be influenced by the seriousness of the sanctions imposed on Russia for occupying the Donbas. 

The size of the force they've amassed suggests their appetite is much larger than just the Donbas. It gives them the option to gobble up the rest of the country, if the West seems irresolute in the face of what they've done so far.

Likely scenario: The Russian troop presence will embolden Donbas locals who have been fighting off the Ukraine army. The locals go on the attack, Ukraine regulars respond, and their response will be a pretext for the Russian troops to join the fight. 

We live in interesting times.