COTTonLINE's favorite foreign affairs analyst, George Friedman poses an interesting theory on what Russia is trying to accomplish with its threatening troop build-up near Ukraine.
Russia’s intention might have been to simply divide NATO so deeply that it could never be repaired. Considering the Europeans are unwilling to financially sustain the alliance, the U.S. doesn’t trust its members to share all the risks, and with the general economic forces driving Europe apart, Russia doesn’t have to try all that hard to divide the alliance.
In support of this notion, Friedman notes:
If NATO shatters, the Russians think they will take control of Ukraine without risk. From the viewpoint of Germany at least, the benefits of NATO do not compare with the benefits of access to natural gas. Germany, for one, cannot value NATO over gas.
Is Friedman correct in his supposition? We'll see. As he notes, the shift in European public opinion Putin might be counting on hasn't yet materialized.
Afterthought: I wonder if German industrialists hope to accomplish in Russia the conquest Hitler's legions could not?
