As noted earlier, whatever "invasion" happened in Ukraine would likely occur after the Winter Olympics ended. Sure enough, the Olympics ended on the 20th and it happened on the 21st.
I put invasion in quotes because what happened was far less dramatic (so far) than expected. Russian "peacekeeping" troops moved into the breakaway Donbas region, likely without firing a shot or being opposed.
The Donbas region of Ukraine is made up of two separatist proto-countries named Luhansk and Donetsk. They are largely Russian speaking, and many residents have recently issued passports granting them Russian citizenship.
This region has been in armed revolt against the Ukraine government ever since the last pro-Russian government in Kyiv was overthrown. The national government has had basically no authority in the Donbas.
Border fighting has continued at low levels between the Ukraine army and the rebels. Ukraine has not made an all-out effort to regain authority in the region.
----------
From at least one point of view, Putin blinked. He had half his army surrounding Ukraine, nearly guaranteeing a successful takeover of the whole nation. He instead chose the least offensive action possible that avoided the shame of giving up and going home.
So far he has sent troops into an area where their presence is welcome by most locals. This action is unlikely to generate serious bloodshed; it may be the nothing-burger Biden hinted he could ignore.
----------
Some have claimed recognizing the independence of the Donbas was the last thing Putin would wish to do. It would reduce the number of Russian speakers in still-independent Ukraine and thus strengthen the majority of those identifying as nationalistic Ukrainians with pro-EU sentiments. Perhaps those claiming this were incorrect?
His actions to date instead mirror what he did in Georgia (the country, not the state). There he supported breakaway provinces which favored Russia.
----------
The moves Putin is making in Eastern Ukraine will not help him reach his alleged goal of reestablishing the old Soviet sphere of influence. Perhaps instead his immediate goal is merely to bring together all regions with ethnic Russian populations?
I am reminded of Hitler absorbing Alsace, Austria and Sudetenland. Hitler wasn't satisfied with uniting the ethnic Germans, he wanted (and conquered) much more before eventually being defeated. With the wisdom of hindsight, Monday-morning quarterbacks concluded Hitler would have been easier to defeat if he had been opposed earlier.
