Are you up for reading a thoroughly pessimistic analysis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict? One that sees war as essentially inevitable? I’ve got your link, at RealClearDefense. As a result of an analysis the major points of which they spell out, the authors reach three conclusions excerpted below.
First, there is not simply a possibility of war but a high probability of war.
Second, NATO should prioritize the capabilities that most disrupt Putin’s plans, specifically UCAVs, anti-air and anti-tank missiles, medium-range rocket and missile launchers, and electronic warfare equipment.
Third, Putin’s incentive structure favors broader escalation if an attack fails.
This third point raises a chilling implication. If NATO does support Ukraine during conflict, Putin will broaden the conflict, attempting to escalate his way out and break NATO's will.
A betting person would not risk a lot of money on the proposition that NATO survives this sort of challenge intact and invigorated. The temptation to throw Ukraine and the Baltics under the bus will be too great for some member states to resist.
N.B.: I present the ideas above for your consideration. I neither endorse nor dismiss them.
