As we noted here earlier, there were predictions of war in Ukraine starting as soon as today. As I write this, it is already early evening in Eastern Europe and no invasion has been reported.
The Beijing Winter Olympics concludes in four days, on the 20th. Some have speculated Russia would not want to steal ally China's spotlight by attacking during the Olympics.
If by the 22nd or 23rd there has been no attack I would judge the odds begin to shift in favor of a continued cold peace, in effect a Russian stand-down. We'll see what happens.
