Against the deadline in March, the Theresa May government in the U.K. is trying to negotiate a deal with the EU that (a) they’ll accept and (b) can pass in Parliament. This article in New Statesman indicates she has accomplished (a) but the deal she provisionally struck won’t do (b). Hat tip to RealClearWorld for the link.
If you are interested in why the author believes the PM’s ‘deal’ can’t get a majority in Commons, he explains that rather complicated analysis. I enjoyed it, you may experience it as TMI.
The short answer is that her ‘deal’ will lose the support of the small Northern Ireland party without which she has no majority. Most of Labor (the opposition) wants a new election to see if they can’t win and form the government.
Right now, if I had to bet, I’d bet on a “no deal” Brexit where the U.K. goes it alone and much chaos ensues. That is what the Leavers voted for, and what they should get - chaos be damned.
Americans should look long and hard at the sort of paralysis that can afflict parliamentary systems like the U.K.’s. May is a lame duck, has been since she called a snap election and lost the majority.
Divisions in her party meant nobody had more support than May so she stayed P.M. with the help of a hard-line Unionist party in N. Ireland. If the Unionists leave, May can’t pull a majority on key votes so the Unionists have an effective veto on what she does. Their prioities are not those of May’s voters. It’s a mess.
