It is early Tuesday morning where I’m writing this, but still Monday in the U.S. as I’m west across the International Date Line. Sailing east toward Hawaii we will apparently get two Wednesdays, one before the date line crossing, one after it.
I’m thinking about what is at stake in the midterm election. Most experts consider the Senate to be safe to continue with a Republican majority. Some governorships will shift to D, but the real prize is the majority in the House of Representatives.
There are two outcomes to consider; Republicans keep control of the House, or they don’t. If they keep it, things will be much as they’ve been for the past two years. If not, another set of conditions will pertain, let us consider what those might be.
With a Democrat majority in the House but not in the Senate, neither party can pass legislation. Expect little or no new legislation for two years, absent some black swan event like a war or other cataclysm. Congress will pass continuing resolutions to keep the government funded, and probably raise the debt limit as needed. Otherwise, nothing important passes.
A Republican-controlled Senate will continue to approve judicial and other appointments made by the President, and treaties if any are negotiated. These require no action by the House.
Bottom line: if the election turns out as the experts have predicted, with a GOP-run Senate and a Dem-run House, expect two years of gridlock. The House will refuse to fund things the President wants and campaigned on, like the wall and the new Jerusalem embassy.
Expect Trump to get as frisky with executive orders as his predecessor was. Then liberals will challenge these orders in court, lower courts will issue injunctions, and just possibly the conservative Supreme Court majority will uphold the orders’ legality.
Alternatively, what earlier presidents have done in similar circumstances is focus on international relations as treaties only require Senatorial approval. He may do both, or spend most of his time campaigning for reelection, running against the gridlock-causing Democrats.
