Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Federalism in Our Future?

I’ve waited to see what eventuates before commenting on two media missteps in the recent past. Now that some of the dust has settled, I’ll react to Buzzfeed misreporting which the Mueller investigation felt it had to correct and the frenzy misdirected at Catholic high school kids from Covington, KY, who were harassed by crazies.

Some see these as media failures, and they certainly were that. I also see them as indicators of the worsening political polarization of our society. There’s a lot of hate on both sides.

The last time our country was this polarized a civil war followed. Is a war likely now? Probably not. Is our mutual revulsion likely to find some political outlet? Probably.

One result might be increased federalism with states empowered to follow their own paths on controversial subjects like abortion, gay marriage, religious freedom and gun ownership. You can almost certainly think of other issues which similarly divide us. It is hard to imagine how states could have different immigration policies as long as free movement between states is possible.

I can envision a future United States in which coastal states operate one set of  “blue” policies, while flyover states follow another set of “red” policies. Perhaps a few states will choose one or another middle path, “purple” with a mix of policies.

At that point we become the “United” States in fact, if not in name. Politicians who wish to have real impact on policies would then run for their state legislature rather than Congress, whose ambit would be circumscribed.

Over time, many people would move to a state where they felt comfortable. It could eventually - peacefully - lead to a split into two (or more) nations.

We hope this isn’t one of those situations described hyperbolically by John F. Kennedy:
Those who make peaceful revolution impossible ... make violent revolution inevitable.