Y’all know George Friedman is my go-to-guy for foreign policy. Today he writes at the Geopolitical Futures website how he thinks the Russian war on Ukraine is likely to end. Spoiler alert: there is good news and bad news.
The good news is that Russia is unlikely to win, if “win” means defeat Ukraine. The bad news is that Russia may settle for destroying Ukraine and most of its people. Friedman writes:
Russia remains a poor country. (snip) In terms of per capita GDP, Russia ranks 85th, nestled between Bulgaria and Malaysia.
The Russian army wasn’t designed for this war, hadn’t planned for this war and has only brutal counter-civilian action to take. And Putin will take it.
The problem, then, is that Putin cannot stop, nor can he reach an agreement with Ukraine that he will keep. Every deal – except for surrender by the enemy – is a revelation of weakness on the part of a weak country and a weak ruler.
He can reach a genuine cease-fire, but if he does, he’s finished. Not being able to defeat the Ukrainians, and held in contempt by others, destroys the myth of his power. Continuing the war endlessly reveals the same thing.
If Putin gives up his position, he is compromised, and perhaps lost. The buzzards are circling. So he must continue to fight until he is forced out and someone else not responsible for the disaster takes over and blames it all on Putin. I think that this can’t end until Putin is pulled from the game.
Putin, having bestrode this ‘tiger,’ has only one way to dismount alive, which is by winning. In the long run he probably can’t win. For the war to end, Putin has to go.
If Friedman is correct, Biden's comment that Putin "has to go" was a Kinsley gaffe. That is, a public figure saying a truth one isn't supposed to admit.
