Saturday, April 2, 2022

A Prediction of Hunger

Instapundit links to a Zeihan on Geopolitics column which makes an interesting, and potentially ominous, point concerning the third horseman of the apocalypse … famine.

Roughly three weeks ago the Russian army poured across Russia’s western frontier into Ukraine. As viewed from an agricultural point of view, the world’s largest wheat exporter invaded the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter.

As a major wheat exporter ourselves (No. 2), the U.S. is unlikely to see shortages but may see increased prices as the world bids up the price. Zeihan sees the problem hitting the Middle East hardest. 

He predicts shortages of fertilizers leading to even more food shortages. And those leading quickly to political unrest in places where people live close to the edge in normal times, which these won’t be.