Hoover Institution historian Niall Ferguson writes analysis of the Russian war with Ukraine for Bloomberg Opinion, and I warn you he is not an optimist. Hat tip to RealClearPolitics for the link. Ferguson thinks there is a not-insignificant chance it morphs into World War III.
How would that happen, you might reasonably ask? He reminds us that WW II was not so much one war as several that flowed together involving Japan, Germany, Italy, and Russia all on the attack in different regions. And he asks what if China attacks Taiwan and the resurgent Iranians end up going to war with the Arabs plus Israel while the fighting drags on in Ukraine. I wish I didn’t see that evil confluence as plausible.
Here are Ferguson’s seven “worst-case scenarios.” He so denominates them because he sees a lot of downside from each.
1. Do the Russians manage to take Kyiv and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in a matter of two, three or four weeks or never? Spoiler: looks like “never.”
2. Do the sanctions precipitate such a severe economic contraction in Russia that Putin cannot achieve victory?
3. Does the combination of military and economic crisis precipitate a palace coup against Putin?
4. Does the risk of downfall lead Putin to desperate measures (e.g., carrying out his nuclear threat)?
5. Do the Chinese keep Putin afloat but on condition that he agrees to a compromise peace that they offer to broker?
6. Does our attention deficit disorder kick in before any of this?
7. What is the collateral damage?
The Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan in 1988 and its dissolution completed in 1991. The optimistic scenario would be a similar sequence of withdrawal from Ukraine followed by an outbreak of government change in Russia. Let’s hope for that outcome.
