Friday, October 28, 2022

China's Claimed Growth Overstated

Some interesting research points to a tentative conclusion that China has been overstating its economic growth statistics by somewhere between 40-60%. Lawrence Person's Battleswarm Blog has the story.

There is a known correlation between night sky lights seen from space and level of economic development. You've seen the photo showing North and South Korea at night, where the south is a blaze of light and there are a few "freckles" of light in the north. That photo shows an extreme case of this phenomenon.

China's night sky photos don't add up. Their night sky is too dark for the claimed level of development. It appears China has been overstating their annual economic growth by something like 50%. 

It turns out such overstatement is common in autocratic countries, sometimes called "command economies." Underlings lie to their bosses in such countries because failure to achieve targets is punished. Central planners may actually believe the numbers they issue, as they too can be punished for missing unrealistic goals. Hat tip to Stephen Green, posting at Instapundit, for the link.

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If a postmortem is ever done on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I expect it will be found that the failures of the Russian army are a result, in part, of exactly this phenomenon. Officers covering up deficits in their units' manpower, weaponry readiness, and maintenance in order to stay eligible for promotions. The deficits only became apparent when actual combat demonstrated the long-concealed unreadiness.