Writing for The Hill, Alexander J. Motyl - a political scientist specializing in Russia and Ukraine at Rutgers - thinks Putin has screwed up too thoroughly to survive in office. He concludes:
When Putin goes, the political system of which he is the linchpin will collapse amidst a vicious power struggle. And when the system goes and chaos reigns, the incentive for Chechens, Bashkirs, Dagestanis, Tatars, Yakuts, and many others to save their skins by seceding will prove enormous. They need not leave simultaneously. It’ll be sufficient for one of them to get the ball rolling, as did Soviet Lithuania in 1989.
And since the systemically dysfunctional Russian Federation increasingly resembles the systemically dysfunctional Soviet Union in 1991, Russia’s collapse is becoming, thanks to the mastermind Putin, unavoidable.
I believe Motyl is correct about the chaos to expect when Putin leaves office. You will, however, have noted that Motyl blithely sidesteps the key question of how long before that exit will occur. Next year is a vastly different proposition than next decade.
