Friday, September 22, 2023

The Winds of (Civil) War

Writing in Military Strategy Magazine, British professor David Betz says the conditions in western societies are ripe for civil war. I am not enough of a student of civil wars to know if he is correct, but his argument is well made. See his article and make your own judgment.

It is not simply that the conditions are present in the West; it is, rather, that the conditions are nearing the ideal. The relative wealth, social stability and related lack of demographic factionalism, plus the perception of the ability of normal politics to solve problems that once made the West seem immune to civil war are now no longer valid. In fact, in each of these categories the direction of pull is towards civil conflict.

The tools of revolt in the form of various appurtenances of modern life are just lying around, knowledge of how to employ them is widespread, targets are obvious and undefended, and more and more formerly regular citizens seem minded to take the shot.

Betz believes the main sides of this civil war, if it comes, will be between urban vs. rural groups. I hope he is wrong about the likelihood it will happen, but his urban vs. rural polarity is real enough. Hat tip to RealClearDefense for the link.