Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Polling Is Hard

Why do polls underreport Republican sentiments and voting intentions? I just read an X post that made the following claim.

If you're not in my contact list, I'm not answering the call.

I know that's true for me, I'll bet it is true for many of us. No wonder pollsters have difficulty getting real people to answer their calls. 

The area code associated with my cell phone number isn't reflective of either of my current home states. I no longer answer anonymous calls with that former area code, as they are almost always spam or wrong numbers.

If pollsters are using area codes to get representative samples, the probable millions of us who've moved in recent years and kept our old phone numbers further complicate their task.