Thursday, March 10, 2016

Voting with Their Feet

John Hinderaker, founding member of the Power Line web site, has retired from the law to head the MN-based Center of the American Experiment think tank. His Center has released a study based on IRS data showing the household incomes of those moving into, and out of, Minnesota. I've listed below the key points of the report's Executive Summary.
Between 2013 and 2014, Minnesota lost nearly $1 billion in net household income to other states.

Between 1992 and 2014, Minnesota lost a cumulative net total of $7.6 billion in household income to other states.

With few exceptions, Minnesota loses taxpaying families to lower-tax states.

Most of the taxpayers who leave Minnesota for lower-tax states are in their prime earning years.

Minnesota loses high-earning families at a much higher rate than other states.

The exodus of citizens from Minnesota accelerated after the legislature’s 2013 tax increases.
Of the people moving into MN, most of those came from states with taxes even higher than MN. As we wrote yesterday,
Don't bother to deny the importance of tax avoidance.

Rumination on Free Trade

There is much talk about the impact of "free trade" on our economy. Yes, it does result in cheaper manufactured goods from overseas. We experience this all the time at Walmart and Costco.

The other DrC likes to buy $5 t-shirts and toss them after a few wearings. I spend most of the year in polo shirts I've bought for roughly $10-12 each. If made in the U.S. they'd cost a lot more and we'd have fewer of them. All of us benefit from the lower prices low wage foreign labor makes possible.

On the other hand, the U.S. once had millions of people employed making things in factories. Factory work wasn't exciting or glamorous but it bought homes and cars and paid bills. Basically, it didn't require exceptional intellect, often a strong back or deft hands were enough.

Okay, we've sent those jobs overseas, but we couldn't send the people with the jobs. Not that they were willing to go, but doing so would have defeated the primary purpose of offshoring: cheap labor.

We still have the people who once would have held factory jobs but those jobs are gone. What is left for the typical former factory worker is a service job: gardener, waiter, beautician, pool boy, driver, retail associate, cashier, janitor, etc. These jobs are often less-than-full-time, have odd, split or rotating shifts, and don't pay nearly what manufacturing did.

Forced into less-stable, less-lucrative service jobs, people don't see enough income stream going forward to marry and establish a household. So families fall apart, or are never formed. The outfall from this effect includes substance abuse, delinquency, crime, and general societal deterioration.

So ... taking the pluses and minuses together, is free trade as currently practiced good? Probably not. As currently practiced, the U.S. engages in free trade while many of its trading partners do not. Thus we run a trade deficit most of the time, which economists argue is just foreigners being willing to lend us the money to buy their goods, enriching our lives. But at what cost in social degradation?

Quotes of the Day

Donald Trump, speaking on CNN, in an interview with Anderson Cooper:
I think Islam hates us.

We can't allow people coming into this country who have this hatred of the United States.
Donald is the implacable enemy of political correctness, the antithesis of Bush & Obama, who both kept calling it "a religion of love." And he so obviously, self-evidently speaks common sense here.

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Making Unkeepable Promises

Reacting to a Wall Street Journal article on "the tenuousness of government pension guarantees in countries across the Continent, from Spain to Germany to Poland," The American Interest editorializes:
Europeans are worse at making babies than the United States, worse at integrating immigrants, worse at saving money to pay boomer retirement bills—but no worse at making promises to voters that they will be unable to keep.
So Bernie Sanders wants us to be more like the Europeans? Phooey.

Suburban Wildlife

John Hinderaker of Power Line reports he saw and photographed a bald eagle in his backyard, causing him to pen the following:
For whatever reason, we are living in a golden age of suburban wildlife.
No lie. I often see hawks, buzzards, the odd eagle, coyotes, deer, jack and bunny rabbits, not to mention rattlesnakes on or near our CA property. Admittedly our area is more exurban than suburban.

A neighbor had a mountain lion napping by her garage. None of this was common when I was young, several decades ago in a similarly semi-rural part of CA. I'm inclined to agree with this Hinderaker thought:
For whatever reason, more and more formerly-seldom-seen species are finding it congenial to live in proximity to humans.
The reason is fewer young males with BB or pellet guns and .22s, taking a shot at whatever moves. I'm not proud to say that was me too many years ago, me and my trusty Red Ryder Daisy lever-action carbine.

Exodus from CA Continues

The Orange County Register carries the following news report of CKE Restaurants, parent company of Carl's Jr. and Hardees fast food restaurants, moving from CA to TN. Hat tip to Steven Hayward at Power Line for the link.
The parent company of Carl’s Jr., founded in Anaheim 60 years ago, is relocating its California, headquarters to Nashville, Tennessee.

Carpinteria-based CKE Restaurants, which also owns St. Louis-based Hardee’s, is consolidating both offices in Tennessee, where it has several company-owned restaurants. All senior executives, including Chief Executive Andrew F. Puzder will be moving to Nashville, Chief Marketing Officer Brad Haley said.
The Western Bacon Cheeseburger at Carl's Jr. is my long-time favorite fast food. Tennessee is one of several states with no state income tax; don't bother to deny the importance of tax avoidance in siting decisions.

Friedman on Trump

Normally, COTTonLINE only values The New York Times' Tom Friedman when he opines about the Middle East. Today he writes about the Trump phenomenon and oddly, I suspect he gets it. His view - Trump's appeal is visceral, not logical. Logical arguments against him won't work.

Friedman believes the only way Trump loses is if he (or his supporters) go too far, get too weird, too violent. I doubt you could get Friedman to bet much against Trump winning, even though clearly he would rather The Donald lose.

Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Weird Gerontological Science

The Telegraph (U.K.) reports a panel of eminent scientists have issued a report urging investigation of a viral and/or microbial cause for Alzheimer's dementia. The agents suspected are herpes and chlamydia as well as various spirochaete.

Most anti-Alzheimer's research is aimed at the physical manifestations like amyloid plaque and tau proteins. The scientists argue for a focus on root causes which may prove to be contagious diseases.

All of the suspected diseases can be sexually transmitted. This, by the way, would explain the explosion in cases of Alzheimer's as logical sequelae of the post-pill sexual revolution of the '60s and '70s. Perhaps like alimony, it can be the screwing you get for the screwing you got.

Primary Update

As of 10:30 p.m. Pacific Time we know the outcome of three of the GOP races, while we await results from Hawaii which is two hours later than Pacific Time.

Donald Trump won Michigan and Mississippi, with Ted Cruz coming in second in each. Ted Cruz won Idaho with Trump in second. Kasich posted a credible third in Michigan, and was pathetic in MS and ID. Rubio was pathetic in all three, he hasn't won a delegate all night.

We may not see HI called before morning, nobody much cares since it reliably votes Democrat in general elections. With 22% of the caucus votes tallied, Trump leads handily and will likely win that state's caucus vote.

On the Democrat side, Sanders narrowly won Michigan while Clinton won Mississippi by like 5 to 1.

Later ... with 53% of the caucus votes counted, Hawaii is called for Trump with about 45% of the vote.

Early Results

At 6:25 p.m. Pacific Time RealClearPolitics has called Mississippi for Trump, although only 15% of the votes are tallied. Cruz ran a strong second, whereas Rubio and Kasich are mired in single digits. Trump is getting around half of the votes in MS.

In Michigan, with 24% of the votes tallied Trump is ahead in the high 30s and Kasich and Cruz both in the low 20 percents, Rubio again in single digits. Michigan has been called for Trump.

Snark Bite

Andrew Malcolm, writing for Investor's Business Daily, titles his late-nite wit column, using a version of a Conan wisecrack:
Hillary says she speaks to God daily, but won't reveal her fee.
I gotta wonder if He resents her hectoring tone as much as I do?

Internal Exiles

Lewis M. Andrews writes for RealClearPolicy about the extent to which entrepreneurs and the seriously religious have withdrawn from participation in the broader American culture. Both view it as inimical to their interests, albeit in different ways.

I found his description of the "Benedict option" taken by the religious particularly interesting. Named for St. Benedict, it refers to withdrawing from participation in the broader culture as much as possible. Well-known historical examples of this would include the Amish and Mennonites.
Having concluded that the culture war has been lost to secular forces, leaving it its wake laws and institutions increasingly hostile to Christian values, growing numbers of Protestants and Catholics are electing to withdraw from civic life and focus on developing their own communities — through homeschooling, limited exposure to popular media, the shared reading of religious classics, creating alternatives to public assistance and healthcare programs, and even self-sufficient farming. (snip) Many Christians are effectively "living as exiles" in their own country.
People I know slightly (relatives of in-laws) live this life to varying degrees. Many have large families, homeschool, and base their lives around evangelical churches. They live within our society but are not "of it."

In their separation from mainstream culture, they are to varying degrees internal exiles, by-design social isolates. Another example, if one was needed, of birds of a feather flocking together.

On Tap Today

There are four Republican primary contests later today: Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, and Mississippi. These are very different states, ID and MS are red as can be, HI and MI are mostly blue, although MI has a Republican governor.

It will be interesting to see whether the Trump downward trend continues, or alternatively he scores big. Cruz has experienced a bit of a boomlet, will it persist or even grow?

I read today that Republican Party rules require the party's nominee to have won a majority of the delegates from at least eight states. This means people like Kasich and Rubio are not on track to win. Cruz will probably get there, Trump is already there. Realistically, if the GOP follows its own rules, Cruz and Trump are the only two who are likely to meet the criteria.

Monday, March 7, 2016

M. Moore Stumbles on Truth

Instapundit Glenn Reynolds republishes a tweet by lefty documentary film maker Michael Moore, the text:
Flint has voted for Dems for 84 straight yrs. What did it get us? For 18 months Dems remained silent & ignored pleas while Flint was poisoned.
And therefore...? Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Americans Oppose Immigration

Bloomberg Businessweek reports the findings of an A. T. Kearney poll which determined that 61% of Americans are opposed to immigration, illegal and otherwise. Even a majority of young people are opposed to further immigration.

Other findings of the poll:
Fifty-eight percent of respondents agreed with the statement "I’m not confident in the U.S. economy’s ability to return to stronger growth." Fifty-two percent agreed, "U.S. businesses will be increasingly uncompetitive." And 51 percent agreed, "My vote doesn’t matter because politics in Washington will never change."
Not cheerful findings, eh? Sort of explains Trump's appeal though. Hat tip to Instapundit Glenn Reynolds for the link.

Globalization's Haves and Have Nots

Kurt Schlichter blogs at Townhall.com, often with something useful to say. What he writes today is so perfectly targeted that it's a must-read.

He's distilled the essence of what others have written about the Trump phenomenon; about how Trump gives voice to the voiceless who refused to vote for Romney last cycle, the GOP's phantom electorate. These are just highlights:
Donald Trump is the fault of the GOP elite, including movement conservatives, who failed to listen, who failed to follow through, who thought we were meant to lead the benighted past their narrow self-interests and unseemly prejudices to a wonderful new world reflecting our benevolent self-interests and elite prejudices. Funny how the conservative, globalized utopia we sought to impose always worked out really well for us. Except those left behind aren’t laughing.

Think of this as, in large part, the struggle between the haves and have nots of globalization. Amnesty was a great idea for bubble people who think illegal immigration satisfies some sort of libertarian ideal, or who only experience its impact by being able to hire a cheaper nanny. It’s a pretty great idea for the illegals too. (snip) If we had built the damn wall we promised our base back then, we probably wouldn’t have that damn Trump now.

It’s not the illegals who are living in the shadows; it’s our own base, the guys and gals who got the short end of the globalization stick. The vast majority of Trump’s supporters are good people who we have let down, and as free agents in the political free market they have found someone who saw a need and is filling it.
I also love his line, not quoted above, about all the lives and treasure lost in "wars we’re too damn gutless to win."

Sunday, March 6, 2016

The Terminator Hearts Kasich

USA Today reports Terminator star and former CA Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has endorsed OH Governor John Kasich to become the GOP nominee for president. This makes total sense.

As California's supposedly Republican governor, Schwarzenegger completely belied his Hollywood tough-guy image. He was the biggest RINO squish imaginable, cooperating fully with the Democrat majority in the legislature.

By his own admission, Kasich is an even more "compassionate" conservative than was George W. Bush, wanting to take care of everyone. It's no wonder "duh Ahnold" likes him, they're birds of a feather.

If you needed a reason not to support Kasich - COTTonLINE readers probably have no such need - Schwarzenegger's endorsement should do the trick.

Saturday, March 5, 2016

Super Saturday Epilogue

As of 7:50 p.m. Pacific Time the GOP primary races in Kansas and Maine have been called for Ted Cruz. Louisiana and Kentucky have been called for Trump. Cruz won 64 delegates while Trump won 49.

Among the Democrats, Clinton won Louisiana while Sanders won Nebraska and Kansas. It is, however, true that Clinton won more delegates (55) today than Sanders (47). Sanders has not demonstrated an ability to win minority votes, a necessity for Democrats.

Super Saturday Update

Results for Kentucky are trickling in slowly, we're at 20% currently. Trump holds a 4 to 3 lead over Cruz. Meanwhile, the polls close in Louisiana in less than an hour, results should follow soon thereafter.

A few results (< 10%) are in for Maine. There's been no change for over an hour in the slight lead Cruz has over Trump there.

These figures current at 5:20 p.m. Pacific Time, source: RealClearPolitics.

Cruz Wins Kansas Caucuses

Politico reports Ted Cruz has decisively beaten Donald Trump in the Kansas caucuses. This on what some are calling "Super Saturday."
Cruz took 51 percent of the Kansas vote with more than 60 percent of precincts reporting. Trump had 23.9 percent.
Assuming the current lead holds, Cruz will have gotten more than twice as many votes as Trump. Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine also have contests today, their results are still pending at 3 p.m. Pacific Time.

Later ... With virtually all of the caucuses reporting, Cruz continues to hold a slightly better than 2 to 1 lead over Trump.