Sunday, March 15, 2020

Spring Optimism

You know how we think of colder weather as “the cold and flu season”? There is some scholarly thinking that the Coronavirus falls into that category and will behave accordingly.

Steven Hayward of Power Line posts interesting research which shows concentrations of Covid-19 deaths plotted on a world weather map. The following quotes the study’s abstract:
A significant number of infectious diseases display seasonal patterns in their incidence, including human coronaviruses. We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well. To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees Celsius and low specific and absolute humidity).
Translation for the bulk of COTTonLINE readers who live by Fahrenheit temps, 5-11 ℃ is between 41 and 52 ℉.

Do people who live where it is warmer get flu too? Certainly they do - I have, unhappily, on more than one occasion in a long life. But clearly one’s chances of getting respiratory infections goes down dramatically in summer. Maybe we’ll be ‘rescued’ by spring which is just under a week away. I choose to be optimistic.