Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who prefer Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders for the nomination, 15% say they’d back Trump over Biden in the fall.Something like 12% of Sanders supporters voted for Trump in 2016.
The poll finds those who prefer Sanders are 42% of "Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents." My back-of-envelope calculation suggests that slightly in excess of 6% of all "Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents" will vote for Trump instead of Biden.
In a 50-50 nation, that 6% looms large, maybe large enough to swing the election for Trump. Trump also has the enthusiasm edge.
Perhaps the Democrats’ biggest risk is under the surface, in Trump’s big advantage in backers who are “very” enthusiastic about supporting him. Strong enthusiasm for a candidate can help boost turnout on Election Day, a must-have particularly for Democrats, who rely more on motivating less-frequent voters to come to the polls.Reminder: Like two other low-enthusiasm candidates - McCain and Romney - Hillary Clinton lost.
There’s déjà vu in these results: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton found herself in largely the same position four years ago. She, too, had a slim lead among Democrats for the nomination and ran essentially evenly with Trump among registered voters. And she lagged in enthusiasm, with a low of 32% very enthusiastic in September 2016. Biden is 8 points under that mark now.
