A new poll suggests some of those concerns might be unfounded and that Trump could be in danger of losing no matter the size of the field.
The question was simple: "If the 2024 Republican primary election for president were held today and the candidates were Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, for whom would you vote?" DeSantis had a solid lead over Trump — 53% to 38%, with 8% undecided.
Of course, there's no chance the GOP race will start as a two-candidate contest. So the pollsters asked voters about a big field, 14 candidates, that more closely resembles the fields from past GOP primary elections.
In that scenario, Trump and DeSantis were essentially tied, Trump with 34% and DeSantis with 33.5%. The news is that even with a big field that would supposedly help him, Trump had no lead.
York believes, with some justification, that most votes for "the other 12" (besides Trump and DeSantis) would switch to DeSantis when their preferred candidate dropped out. Possibly ... or maybe they would drop out too, stay home or vote for Biden.
My sense is that primary voters who support Sununu or Hogan would be Biden voters in November. DeSantis could be too much a "Trump policies" clone for their taste.
