George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures looks at their statements, reviews his own earlier predictions which don't see a war developing, and concludes he remains of that more pacifistic opinion.
Friedman however concludes with this comment:
Perhaps I am reverting to bad habits. Answering my own questions with my old views is admittedly poor intelligence. Feel free to let me know which questions I didn’t pose and which answers were insufficient.
The gist of his argument is that it is not in China's own interests, rationally considered, to go to war. My response is that going to war is often a less-than-rational decision on the part of autocrats.
I offer Putin's decision to invade Ukraine as an example of this. It appears he envisioned himself as a restorer of the currently depleted Russian empire, wearing the laurel leaves of victory. Such visions can be heady stuff.
His vision was emotional rather than rational, as subsequent events have seemed to demonstrate rather conclusively. Who is to say Xi is more rational than Putin? Or more constrained? Or less determined to be enshrined in his country's millennia-spanning pantheon of heroes?
