COTTonLINE’s favorite writer-on-foreign-policy George Friedman considers the near-certainty of a new Russian offensive in Ukraine, and asks the question “What does the U.S. do if the Russians appear to be defeating Ukraine?” For what it’s worth, here’s what Friedman concludes:
If Ukraine’s defenses crumble, the U.S. would have to make some rapid decisions (or rapidly implement decisions already made). It could send forces into Ukraine to try to force a Russian retreat, or it could decline combat.Directly engaging Russian troops with limited force can be a long, painful and uncertain engagement. But accepting the outcome opens the door for Russia to rearrange Europe again. A second cold war would be a necessary but undesired outcome. Reinforcing Ukraine before its collapse would therefore be the lower risk and cost option.
Lower risk and cost maybe, but not necessarily the choice we’d make.
