Paulistas on the Fringe

In China and India people don't much like having daughters. In both countries many girl babies are aborted and many more are carried to term but abandoned or given up for adoption.

The reasons in the two countries are somewhat different but the results are the same. This is a sad business, one that ultimately will be destructive to countries where it happens.

Now people campaigning for Ron Paul have criticized Jon Huntsman for having two adopted daughters, one each from India and China. Huntsman is P.O.'ed about this criticism and he has every right to be mad.

Paul has blown it off as craziness done by extreme supporters. Maybe...but Paul has a track record of attracting fringe supporters, this isn't the first time. You can see a story about this here at RealClearPolitics.

Nothing New Here

Did you see where Los Angeles Roman Catholic Auxiliary Bishop Gabino Zavala resigned after it was revealed that he fathered two now-teenage children? Read the story in The Washington Post.

My reaction is that Bishop Zavala was following a quite old Roman Catholic tradition; there have even been several popes with children. Go here to see a Wikipedia list of sexually active popes.

I'd rather Bishop Zavala fathered children than molested them, as have many priests. Better a parent than a pedophile.

New Patent, Old Idea

This CBS Seattle News site has a story about Microsoft patenting a feature for GPS devices that would create routes avoiding high-crime areas, aka "ghettos." I'll bet many will view this feature as discriminatory or apartheid-like. Many more will like it a lot.

As a GPS mod it may be very new, as an idea it is at least decades old. In the two years I spent in the greater Washington, DC area working for USDA in Hyattsville, MD, I would once or twice a week commute to the USDA headquarters building downtown on the mall, across from the Smithsonian.

The USDA shuttle bus we rode down and back did not take the most direct route, which would have gone through lots of ghetto. Instead it went out of the way to go via parts of northeastern DC that were then relatively "safe."

Safe areas included Catholic University and associated seminaries, the National Shrine of the Immaculate Conception, a cemetery and a couple of black middle class neighborhoods. Only the last mile or so was through what you'd call a poor section. We scooted through that as quickly as we could and arrived in downtown alongside Union Station.

At the time I had memorized the route so I too could drive down to the Federal area safely in my own car. I couldn't find the route today, decades later.

Recess Appointments

The President has made so-called "recess appointments" to the CFPB and NLRB during a time when the Senate was technically, if not literally, in session. These actions will almost surely go to the Supreme Court, after slogging through the lower courts.

Whether this president will still be in office by the time the Supremes get the case is a good question? Answer: probably not. Will a change of president make the case moot? Again, probably not.

Quote of the Day

Jacob Weisberg, writing in Slate, makes a point of journos' vested interest in playing up the "horserace" aspects of the candidate selection process.

Hence the media’s pretense of taking seriously a succession of nonviable candidates with outlandish views. Rick Santorum is not, under any circumstances, going to be the GOP nominee.

Brooks Admits Error

New York Times columnist David Brooks has admitted he misjudged Barack Obama. Politico quotes Brooks from the Laura Ingraham radio show:

I still like him and admire him personally, but he’s certainly more liberal than I thought he was.

Then Brooks explains the President's inactivity in this interesting way:

He's more liberal than he thinks he is. He thinks he’s just slightly center-left, but when you get down to his instincts, they’re pretty left. And his problem is that he can’t really act on them, because it would be political disaster. And so that means, I think right now he’s doing very little, proposing very little.

To be sure, "right now he's doing very little" but imagine what a nightmare he'll be if reelected with no further worries about electability.

Santorum Not PC

The Rick Santorum boom happened too close to the Iowa caucuses for people to learn of the more far-out things he's said. This article from The Week, in Yahoo News, gives you nine examples of Santorum letting his mouth run without first putting his brain in gear.

Santorum manages to criticize gays, working moms, birth control, Palestinians, Mormons, abortion, and blacks. On the other hand he defends the Crusades. While you may agree with some of these viewpoints, I'm sure you recognize the poor political judgment his saying them in public represents.

Economic Mobility

Hey, there, demography fans! Here is another slice through the population data, this time looking at income mobility with a social class bias and written by Jason DeParle for The New York Times.

Given the Gray Lady's current set of leftish biases, you can imagine DeParle worked hard to find evidence of social immobility in the U.S. vis-a-vis Europe and the other English-speaking countries. By focusing on the very top and very bottom he found what he wanted.

DeParle did admit that in the great middle, the U.S. is still mobile. He writes:

Middle America remains fluid. About 36 percent of Americans raised in the middle fifth move up as adults, while 23 percent stay on the same rung and 41 percent move down, according to Pew research. The “stickiness” appears at the top and bottom, as affluent families transmit their advantages and poor families stay trapped.

Most of us are neither in the top nor bottom tenth of the income distribution; economic mobility remains a reality for us - no surprise. You have to get to the second page of the article to find this quote, that's the Times' liberal bias at work. If you read all the way to the end, it is a decent article worth your time.

More 2012 Predictions

Paul Brandus, who writes for The Week, has an article here found on Yahoo News, with political predictions for 2012. Two of his three are boilerplate; he predicts the GOP will take control of the Senate and keep control of the House, albeit by a smaller margin. Virtually all pundits make these same two forecasts.

His third prediction - who will win the presidency - is shakier, something he admits. He predicts Obama will win reelection by narrowly beating Romney.

Brandus lists several factors against reelection: low approval ratings, high misery index, and a feeble economy. Plus he notes "Romney's views correlate very closely with most Americans, and Obama's do not."

Accurately, he says neither man will arouse much voter enthusiasm and thus turnout will be lower. Brandus believes Obama starts with such high approval that, in spite of all of the foregoing, he will still narrowly win.

A greater possibility is that, between now and November, the economy will improve noticeably and Obama will take credit for that improvement.

Top Ten Risks for 2012

The Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting group, has released their top ten list of "things to worry about" for 2012. Hat tip to RealClearWorld for the link.

Six of their items are unexceptionable, including the following: the Eurozone, North Korea, Pakistan, China, Egypt, and Venezuela. If you've been paying attention to the world you know these are areas of concern.

Others they list need some explanation: the end of the 9/11 era, G-Zero and the Middle East, the United States, and South Africa. Their paper gives the reasoning for each.

I particularly like their idea of G-Zero, "the inability/unwillingness of major powers to take on new risks and burdens." They see this being particularly relevant to current political turmoil in the Middle East. I believe it is relevant to troubles in Africa as well. It isn't clear how they square the recent NATO involvement in Libya with G-Zero.

To their list of ten I would add the terrorist troubles brewing in Nigeria, a major oil producer. The drug cartel wars in Mexico are also problematic. If I had to pick a wild card it would be the odd nationalistic things happening in Hungary.

On the other hand, I would subtract the United States from their list. Whatever happens politically, the U.S. will muddle through economically. It continues to be the world's economic refuge, the place where money is sent to be more-or-less safe.

The Trende Trend

Sean Trende is elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. Here he gives us his three takeaways from the Iowa caucuses. His items one and two are relatively prosaic: it was a good night for Romney, but Romney is not the inevitable nominee. You could argue with either but both are plausible.

His third takeaway would require a paradigm shift for both parties. Trende imagines that Santorum might herald the future of the GOP, even if he doesn't win the 2012 nomination.

Trende sees a possibility that the GOP will come to embody Santorum's mix of social conservatism and populism, a mix attractive to the white working class which the party increasingly represents. The shift could happen in this way:

The Democrats have been moving toward a top-bottom coalition of “New Economy” professionals and minority voters. A Santorum/Huckabee-esque Republican Party would probably hasten the exit of upscale suburbanites from the Republican coalition, and potentially reinvigorate the New Democrat approach to governing that dominated the party’s politics in the ’90s.

I'll believe it when I see it...but stranger things have happened.

Iowa Has Spoken

The Iowa results are in: Romney 25%, Santorum 25%, Paul 21%, Gingrich 13%, Perry 10%, Bachmann 5%, and Huntsman 1%. Romney beat Santorum by something like 8 votes to be the technical winner, effectively they tied.

Santorum benefited by having the last "surge" before the caucuses occurred. Huntsman can shrug off these results as he did not campaign in Iowa. However he'd better do well in New Hampshire if he plans to continue in the race.

The Iowa GOP can breathe a sigh of relief that Ron Paul did not win; that would have been a mess. An analysis of Paul supporters could suggest whether they are likely to vote and for whom when once again their guy isn't the nominee.

What I find amazing is that the top two finishers only split half the votes between them. Fully half of Iowa's Republicans wanted someone other than Romney or Santorum. Almost thirty percent of the Iowa GOP went for one of the last four finishers, the also-rans.

I believe this is more evidence, if anyone needed it, that many GOP voters aren't in love with the choices available this year. The 2012 ballot is going to be a vote against rather than a vote for. Voters will go for the new guy because they're tired of the old guy.

Strassel: "Mr. Good Enough"

The Wall Street Journal's Kim Strassel sums up the pre-Iowa GOP campaign and declares Mitt Romney "Mr. Good Enough." Not outstanding, not charismatic, but perhaps good enough to win the nomination, if not necessarily the election. Her conclusion:

In a presidential election, good enough might not be enough to win.

More on China's Problems

On Christmas Eve day, just over a week ago, we wrote of trouble in the housing market of China. Now an article in Foreign Policy by Gordon G. Chang takes a very gloomy view of China's political and economic situation in 2012. Here is an example:

Since late September, economic indicators -- electricity consumption, industrial orders, export growth, car sales, property prices, you name it -- are pointing toward either a flatlining or contracting economy. Money started to leave the country in October and Beijing's foreign reserves have been shrinking since September.

I wonder how much of this is wishful thinking?

Fixing Flix

John Nolte, writing in Breitbart's Big Hollywood, comes up with several things Hollywood could do to reverse the decline of the movie business. Several of them have to do with a group of left-wing individuals trying to sell product to a center-right nation. No kidding.

Nolte also thinks real stories and real heroes might sell, along with real stars. Right again.

The article is too long, but his reasoning isn't bad. Speed read it unless you are a film maven. Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.

Simon Calls the Primary

Roger Simon of Politico says Romney has the GOP nomination locked up, and hints he will be the next president. His reasoning is interesting, and possibly even correct. Do yourself a favor, read his article.

Does Romney = Kerry?

Joseph Curl who writes for The Washington Times here takes up the issue of Mitt Romney's similarities to John Kerry. Those similarities are both many and scary, he notes they are:

Two Boston blue-blood multimillionaires, spending summers in their island estates and winters in their mountain mansions; both are recidivist flip-floppers with long records of often indefensible 180s; and each was going up against a supremely unpopular — the catch word is “beatable” — president. Both are stiff, highly programmed and have problems connecting with voters.

On the other hand, they have differences and the question for the voters will be: Do those differences seem both substantial and important? Curl ends up concluding the voters can make the distinction and will see Romney as a better choice than Obama.

Romney Problems

Writing for The Weekly Standard, Jeffrey Anderson shows how Romney will be an easy target for Obama:

If one were going to design a Republican opponent tailor-made to President Obama’s liking, that opponent would be uniquely vulnerable to Obama’s main rhetorical thrust (making class-warfare arguments), uniquely unsuited to take clear aim at Obama’s least popular action as president (spearheading the passage of Obamacare), and uniquely strong in states that are unlikely to matter in the general election race. In all three of these ways, Romney is made to order for Obama.

The points are hard to argue against: Romney is wealthy, the father of Romneycare in Massachusetts, and strong in the northeast, which will vote Democratic regardless. Ouch.

Happy New Year!

COTTonLINE wishes all regular readers a Happy New Year! There is some chance it can be an improvement over 2011.

The politics now look like November's election may bring good news, keep fingers crossed. We've a good shot at taking the Senate and a fair shot at the White House.

The economy probably won't improve significantly, especially as Europe looks like it's headed back into recession and China also has problems. On the other hand, fewer American troops will be in harm's way overseas, that is good.

Both the Tea Party and Occupy movements show signs of winding down, Americans aren't big on movements. Hollywood films lose centrality in our entertainment firmament, people spend hours playing with their 'phones' that are really tiny computers.

POTUS Not Popular in Iowa

RealClearPolitics' Salena Zito has wandered the byways of Iowa and finds many who once voted for Obama now determined to try someone else. The article is mostly anecdotal but gives the flavor of the Iowa electorate. Team Obama cannot be pleased.