In today's midterm election the Republican Party kicked some serious posterior. As I write this just before midnight West Coast time, the RealClearPolitics website shows the following results.
So far the Democrats have lost seven Senate seats to the Republicans: AR, CO, IA, MT, NC, SD, and WV. Three races remain to be decided: Alaska, Virginia, and Louisiana. We should know about Alaska tomorrow sometime.
The Virginia Senate race is so close it will probably go to a recount. In Louisiana none of the three candidates got 50% of the vote, so the two with the highest vote totals - Landrieu and Cassidy - will go head-to-head in a December runoff Cassidy is expected to win.
The night's really unexpected outcome has been Republicans winning several governor's races in which they were believed uncompetitive. Who would imagine GOP candidates would win the governorships in deep blue states like Illinois, Massachusetts, and Maryland?
The Dems picked up one in Pennsylvania. Several remain to be decided. Of particular importance was the win by union-busting incumbent Scott Walker in Wisconsin.
In the House, the GOP so far has won twelve seats held by the Dems. and the Dems have won one GOP seat, for a net GOP gain of 11.
If this election isn't a wave it is the biggest ripple I ever saw. Republicans who were supposed to be in trouble turned out to be safe. Democrats who were supposed to be safe turned out to be in trouble, and most of those lost.
There is no way this election was anything other than a repudiation of the Obama administration and its policies. At the very least, the rhythms of the next two years will be different as the odious Harry Reid joins Nancy Pelosi on the dungheap of history. Expect many Obama vetoes.
I've lived through any number of November Tuesday nights where the results were not to my liking, the most recent two years ago. I propose to enjoy tonight fully, high fives and big grins all around.
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
It Happens Tomorrow
By this time tomorrow we should know whether the election was a tsunami, a wave, a ripple, or a fiasco. Many pundits will sit late at their word processors writing the obligatory thumb sucker, discoursing mightily on "What actually happened and what it means."
Many of these will draw the wrong inferences. I wouldn't have it any other way; it is all part of the ritual of arriving at a representative government.
Till then ....
Many of these will draw the wrong inferences. I wouldn't have it any other way; it is all part of the ritual of arriving at a representative government.
Till then ....
Performance Appraisal Time
As those who've worked in large scale organizations know, the annual performance appraisal is an opportunity for you and your boss to be very uncomfortable while s/he tells you how you've been doing. Generally speaking, both bosses and subordinates would rather skip them, but organizations insist.
Tomorrow you get to tell President Obama how you evaluate his performance over the past two years. Happily for both of you, you don't have to look him in the eye while you do so.
A little bird has told me Barry O. isn't going to like the majority opinion of his performance in office. More to the point, other Democrats aren't going to like it either. The blame game may get very shrill.
An old horse player told me you bet horses based on how they ran in the past. This president has never yet taken personal responsibility for anything gone wrong. Do you suppose he will man up at long last?
My bet is "No."
Tomorrow you get to tell President Obama how you evaluate his performance over the past two years. Happily for both of you, you don't have to look him in the eye while you do so.
A little bird has told me Barry O. isn't going to like the majority opinion of his performance in office. More to the point, other Democrats aren't going to like it either. The blame game may get very shrill.
An old horse player told me you bet horses based on how they ran in the past. This president has never yet taken personal responsibility for anything gone wrong. Do you suppose he will man up at long last?
My bet is "No."
Monday, November 3, 2014
Political Humor Alert
Somebody doesn't like California's current Democratic governor, Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown. Here he gets the same artistic poster treatment Rep. Maxine Waters got in L.A.; her's was labeled "Poverty Pimp."
The items floating alongside his head are likely bullet train cars; he loves the foolish high speed rail project. Hat tip to Steven Hayward at Power Line for the image.
The Silver Standard
Nate Silver, guru of the FiveThirtyEight political blog and a statistician with an enviable track record, announces his basic, underlying beliefs:
I see American political history as being highly stochastic (if not random, then at least hard to predict over the long term). If a party has a terrific year, as Democrats did in 2008 or Republicans did in 2010, I don’t interpret that as saying much about what the political landscape is likely to look like in future seasons.If deep blue Massachusetts elects a Republican governor, as it well may, nearly anything is possible.
Incumbency is still an advantage on average. However, it’s much less of an advantage than it used to be.
Quote of the Day
Columnist David Harsanyi, writing for The Federalist, about "progressive" pundits trying to find the pony buried in the pile of horse manure this election is likely to deliver to them.
If you think there’s gridlock now, wait until Republicans are driving policy.Harsanyi delivers a clever paraphrase of "It depends on whose ox is being gored."
I suspect some others, less fair-minded pundits, might recalibrate their position to celebrate the power of obstructionism as a worthy pursuit in defense of Progressive aims. Because, let’s face it, this has never been about a mucked-up process. It’s about what policies are stuck in the muck.
R.I.P., Tommy
The Daily Caller reports via Yahoo News that Tom Magliozzi, the elder of the two brothers who co-hosted Car Talk on National Public Radio has died at age 77. He and brother Ray billed themselves as Click and Clack, the Tappet Brothers, and were well-known for their tagline: "Don't drive like my brother."
As a Marketing Ph.D. Tommy was a management consultant, a professor for several years and a radio personality of considerable renown. He is said to have died from the complications of Alzheimer's Disease. Characteristically, brother Ray wisecracked:
As a Marketing Ph.D. Tommy was a management consultant, a professor for several years and a radio personality of considerable renown. He is said to have died from the complications of Alzheimer's Disease. Characteristically, brother Ray wisecracked:
He wasn't kidding, he really couldn't remember the puzzler.The DrsC have spent many a happy hour listening to these two guys laugh their butts off, dispensing automotive wisdom and cracking wise.
Count Down
Forty-eight hours from now we should have a good idea of the election outcome. It is a biennial treat I look forward to, particularly when my "team" is favored to win, as it is this year.
I won't miss the political yard cards and signs littering the roadsides in my rural part of CA. I've seen almost no TV political ads as we record on DVR everything we watch (except PBS) for later viewing and fast forward through the commercials. Doing it makes ad-laden network TV bearable.
If the advertisers, including candidates, still want to pay for air time, while I don't have to listen to or watch their ads, who am I to complain? They are welcome to do so.
Once we get the midterm safely behind us, the 2016 presidential season begins in earnest. I certainly hope 2016 isn't remembered as the Clash of the Dynasties: Clinton vs. Bush. That is a direction in which U.S. politics need not go. There are other, fresher faces the parties can bring forward.
It is too bad Jeb wasn't nominated in 2000 instead of George W., I believe he'd have been a less awkward POTUS. That said, we don't need a third Bush presidency. Or another Clinton term either.
I won't miss the political yard cards and signs littering the roadsides in my rural part of CA. I've seen almost no TV political ads as we record on DVR everything we watch (except PBS) for later viewing and fast forward through the commercials. Doing it makes ad-laden network TV bearable.
If the advertisers, including candidates, still want to pay for air time, while I don't have to listen to or watch their ads, who am I to complain? They are welcome to do so.
Once we get the midterm safely behind us, the 2016 presidential season begins in earnest. I certainly hope 2016 isn't remembered as the Clash of the Dynasties: Clinton vs. Bush. That is a direction in which U.S. politics need not go. There are other, fresher faces the parties can bring forward.
It is too bad Jeb wasn't nominated in 2000 instead of George W., I believe he'd have been a less awkward POTUS. That said, we don't need a third Bush presidency. Or another Clinton term either.
Sunday, November 2, 2014
Quotes of the Day
Power Line's John Hinderaker has two quotes from Russian chess grand master Garry Kasparov, I like both:
The Obama Doctrine: Do as little as necessary to appear to be doing something without actually committing to a cause or course of action.Kasparov is really clear that Putin's Russia is our enemy.
Obama & most of EU have "anti-paranoia." (Is there a word for this?!) Pretending you don't have enemies doesn't mean you don't have enemies!
538: GOP Looks Strong
Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight blog fame, reports polls show strengthening evidence of a Republican Senate takeover two days from now. He gives the GOP a 72% chance. See what he concludes:
It ain't over till it's over, but I begin to allow myself to become somewhat optimistic.
The FiveThirtyEight model accounts for the possibility that the polls could be systematically biased — in either direction. If I instead tell the model to assume the polls have no overall bias — even though they might be off in particular states — the Democrats’ chances of keeping the Senate would be just 17 percent.I like those no-bias odds, a boost from 72% to 83%. Meanwhile the Washington Post Election Lab model gives the GOP a 96% chance of gaining control of the Senate. Even the NY Times reluctantly gives the GOP a 68% edge.
It ain't over till it's over, but I begin to allow myself to become somewhat optimistic.
A Prognosticator Spins
Nate Cohn writes in The New York Times that while the GOP is likely to win Senate control on Tuesday, it is actually a bad year for the GOP. The first part is prediction, the second part is hopeful lefty spin.
Cohn anticipates the GOP will only do well because few young people and minorities bother to vote in midterm elections. About Democrats, he admits:
Cohn hopes demographics are destiny. He is a decent statistician, he should stick to that and leave the spin to party hacks. A week from now we'll have a better idea how various groups in the Obama coalition voted.
For another take-down of the Nate Cohn column, see a critique by Leon Wolf at RedState. Wolf makes an entirely correct point - Cohn conveniently avoids mentioning polling that shows young people, women and Hispanics all moving away from the Democrats.
Cohn anticipates the GOP will only do well because few young people and minorities bother to vote in midterm elections. About Democrats, he admits:
Polls suggest that the party is not faring as well among young or Hispanic voters as in years past.Then he shrugs that off and continues to assume Hillary (or whoever) will be able to reassemble the Obama 2012 coalition. If most Millennials can't find career jobs in the next two years, don't bet on them voting to continue a Democratic White House with an economic losing streak.
Cohn hopes demographics are destiny. He is a decent statistician, he should stick to that and leave the spin to party hacks. A week from now we'll have a better idea how various groups in the Obama coalition voted.
For another take-down of the Nate Cohn column, see a critique by Leon Wolf at RedState. Wolf makes an entirely correct point - Cohn conveniently avoids mentioning polling that shows young people, women and Hispanics all moving away from the Democrats.
The 2% Thorn
Carl M. Cannon of RealClearPolitics writes Alaska Senator Mark Begich claims to stand between President Obama's policies and Alaska, saying:
I’ll be a thorn in his ass.Cannon adds:
A boast that hardly squares with a voting record 98 percent in sync with the White House.I'd guess Begich will be a thorn exactly 2% of the time, wouldn't you?
Weird Demographic Science
RealClearPolicy's Robert VerBruggen wondered if births per woman would be greater in countries where more people are married. The short answer is "No." He notes:
Italy, Greece, and Japan -- famously low-fertility countries -- have incredibly high marriage rates.China is another example of a place with few children (cf. one child policy) but many marriages. Birth and marriage rates are both high in the two Islamic countries shown in his graph: Turkey and Indonesia. Both are also high in India which has a huge Muslim minority.
How He Lost America
The New York Times' Ross Douthat suggests four "partial theories" of how President Obama lost the support of a majority of Americans.
He gets blamed for Republican intransigence.Douthat explains each of those in his article. If you talked to several voters, I bet you'd hear every one of these. In other words, it's all of the above, not to mention Obama's highly-inappropriate-in-crisis golf obsession. He's become boring to listen to, and his appointees are unimpressive.
It’s the economy — yes, still.
It’s Obamacare — yes, still.
It’s foreign policy — and competence.
Saturday, November 1, 2014
Daylight Savings End
Hey, ladies and gents, don't forget to set your clocks back tonight before you go to bed. Daylight savings time ends tomorrow morning at 2 a.m., and in the fall we "fall back." Enjoy the extra hour of sleep.
Be extra careful for the next week or so. There is some evidence people are at slightly more risk of accidents immediately after a time change.
Be extra careful for the next week or so. There is some evidence people are at slightly more risk of accidents immediately after a time change.
A Rallying Cry
Howie Carr, who writes for The Boston Herald, urging a vote for the GOP:
Wake up, dammit! Why would anyone who works for a living vote for a Democrat this year?
If you’re in the working class, why would you want to support a lying hack who wants to take all your money and give it to EBT card holders and the hordes of illegal aliens now massing on the Rio Grande to overrun every welfare office and hospital emergency room in America once the elections are over next week.
Quotes of the Day
National Review's Jonah Goldberg, quoted by John Hawkins in his Townhall column:
People ask, “Why is there poverty in the world?” It’s a silly question. Poverty is the default human condition. It is the factory preset of this mortal coil.Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.
Liberals are uncomfortable with the topic of patriotism because their core philosophical impulses are to make America a different country than it is.
Right Label, Wrong Target
It has been reported that at least one high (but conveniently unnamed) official in the Obama administration has labeled Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu a "chickenshit," meaning coward. As the Chicago Sun-Times comments, this was a seriously stupid thing to say, both inaccurate and boorish.
Had the unnamed apparatchik called his boss that unlovely name, he would have been accurate, but out of a job. Had a cabinet officer in Netanyahu's government said that of Obama it would have been crude, but at least descriptive. Netanyahu's people have kept such observations to themselves, showing admirable restraint.
Hostility toward Jews among American blacks is no new thing. You all remember the Rev. Jesse Jackson famously calling New York City "Hymietown."
Had the unnamed apparatchik called his boss that unlovely name, he would have been accurate, but out of a job. Had a cabinet officer in Netanyahu's government said that of Obama it would have been crude, but at least descriptive. Netanyahu's people have kept such observations to themselves, showing admirable restraint.
Hostility toward Jews among American blacks is no new thing. You all remember the Rev. Jesse Jackson famously calling New York City "Hymietown."
They Ate Him
The following is not a spooky-for-Halloween story. Reuters reports via Yahoo News a crowd in the Democratic Republic of the Congo killed a man they believed was from neighboring Uganda, after which they burned his corpse and ate him.
That's just hard to credit, but Reuters is normally sound. I'd say DR Congo is a place to avoid, yes? Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.
That's just hard to credit, but Reuters is normally sound. I'd say DR Congo is a place to avoid, yes? Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.
Shows Lack Reality, Die
Entertainment Weekly's Inside TV reports so-called reality TV shows may be on the way out. I hope it is true. Talk about a step long overdue, IMHO they were the worst.
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