What, then, does Badran believe those consequences are?
The president has used a series of tools to dismantle Obama’s Middle East framework. Trump withdrew from the Iran deal in May 2018, collapsing the security partnership Obama had assiduously built with the Iranians and their regional militias commanded by the recently departed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani—who met his demise courtesy of a U.S. missile strike last month.If Badran’s analysis is accurate, the Trump plan formalizes a dramatic change in U.S. policy toward the region.
On the Israel front, Trump nullified the 1967 lines, the cornerstone of the Arab rejectionist position that Obama had attempted to enshrine in UNSCR 2334. He did this by moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, and then by recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. The latter move eliminated the 1967 framework altogether with regard to Syria and Lebanon. As far as the United States is concerned, there are no more disputed territories: The land is Israel’s. The current plan extends that same approach to the Jordan Valley, in addition to existing settlements.
Trump’s deal is designed to underscore Israel’s special relationship with the United States—and it slams shut the rusty gates of the peace processing factory for good. It doesn’t much matter how the Palestinians respond. The American position is not dependent on the outcome of future negotiations.
