As you can imagine I have been reading widely in the aftermath of Tuesdays Democratic follies in NH. Some gleanings from that process follow.
Sanders appears to have difficulty getting more than a quarter of the party’s vote. In a very divided field that might enable him to “win” a number of states.
Such wins won’t automatically get him the nomination as all states assign electors proportionally in the Democrat primaries. If you assume 3/4 of Democrats don’t want Sanders, there may be a majority of #neverSanders electors at the convention. An “open convention” is thus a possibility.
Let’s say Sanders has more delegates at the convention than anyone else, but no majority. Let’s further assume the #neverSanders people decide to back someone else. Will the twice-jilted Sanders supporters fall in line and support the party nominee, bolt to a third party or stay home?
Looking ahead, NV gives us a look at Hispanic voters, and SC at black voters, both are groups Democrats rely on. Their preferences remain unclear at this point. We forge ahead.
