Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Incomplete Iowa Results

We have partial results from the Iowa caucuses. With something like 71% of precincts reporting, the percentage total for each of the major candidates are these, per Politico.
26.8%.  Pete Buttigieg
25.2%.  Bernie Sanders
18.4%.  Elizabeth Warren
15.4%.  Joe Biden
12.6%.  Amy Klobuchar
Buttigieg will claim victory, but the difference between him and Sanders is, for all practical purposes, irrelevant as a predictor of future results. Warren hasn’t fallen as far as the polls suggested, Biden did poorly as expected in nearly monochromatic Iowa.

Between them on the hard left, Sanders and Warren are getting roughly 43% of those who bothered to caucus, caucus turnout was generally less-than-robust. With that many precincts reporting, I would not expect the final percentages to differ greatly from those above.

Note: After posting this, I discover that RealClearPolitics is reporting slightly different numbers which put Sanders very slightly ahead of Buttigieg. I don’t know what to make of the discrepancy.