A Gloomy Prognosis

Writing at The National Interest, Robert D. Blackwell looks down the road at future China-U.S. relations and finds the prognosis grim. He posts nine theses concerning what will likely happen between the two nations. I'll share the last two with you.

8. Regarding the United States and China, there will be no grand bargain on world order, no strategic modus vivendi, no accepted rules of the road, no staying in agreed lanes, because they are too far apart on their national interests and values.

9. Instead, the two nations will be on the edge of crisis for decades, and only quality diplomacy on both sides will rescue them from likely tragedy.

Betting on people acting in their own self-interest is nearly always a safe bet, and “tragedy” is mankind’s default setting.