I’m going out on a limb with a prediction that turnout of Democrats for the November election will be lackluster. Why? We begin with the enthusiasm gap.
It is widely reported that the enthusiasm gap between Trump voters and Biden voters is large, Joe isn’t an exciting guy. With his VP pick Biden had a chance to amp up enthusiasm.
So he selected Kamala Harris who stirred so little enthusiasm among Democrats that she dropped out of the race months before the Iowa caucuses, before a single vote was cast. Plus she’s no help with the Bernie bros, who aren’t won over. How was she a good choice?
What does that leave? Voting against Trump, which is admittedly a major motivator for some fraction of the electorate.. How big a fraction? Substantially less than half in my judgment.
Has Trump lost many of those who voted for him 4 years ago? I believe polls show the answer is “no.” Does Biden have fewer negatives than Clinton? The Joe Biden of 12 years ago certainly had fewer, now he too often appears markedly old and mentally confused.
Add in that most Americans disapprove of the urban unrest we’ve experienced recently, unrest that Democrats have refused to condemn or have even excused. And finally, as my late father - a Southern Democrat - would mutter after Stevenson lost to Eisenhower twice in a row, “The darned Republicans all vote.” Yes, Dad, we tend to do just that.
