My current favorite writer on foreign affairs is George Friedman, who writes at Geopolitical Futures. Today, after the usual caveats of admitted fallibility, he runs through a decent analysis and comes up with the following two tentative predictions.
The assumption of the world has been that Europe is obsessed with economics and indifferent to geopolitics. The assumption about China is that it has become a great power and challenger to the United States. My view is that Europe has been on vacation from history, and that it will end, and that China’s pretense to power is unsustainable.Belarus is a battle waiting to be launched. (snip) China is nearing a shift in its behavior.
If you follow foreign affairs, as I try to, you should see the reasoning that leads Friedman to those rather startling conclusions. BTW, he rather pointedly doesn’t propose a timeline for either prediction.
