Steven Hayward at Power Line has a table from RealClearPolitics comparing Biden with Clinton 4 years ago, in the battleground states at this point before the election. Biden is polling significantly poorer than Clinton in the following: WI, MI, OH, and PA. He is polling better than Clinton in FL, NH, and NV. Trump leads in GA, NC, IA, and MO. Trump was ahead in AZ last time and Biden is this time. Clinton led in IA last time while Trump does this time.
None of the foregoing takes into account the possibility of "shy" Trump voters. Those are people who won't disclose their presidential preference for fear of damaging their social or job standing. They were likely responsible for Trump's upset victory in 2016.
Polls show substantial numbers who report supporting Biden but predict their neighbors will vote for Trump. This finding gives us reason to suspect a social science construct called "social desirability bias" is at work. Social science theory holds that most who report this disjuncture will, themselves, vote the way they claim their supposed "neighbors" will.
If you're curious, the rationale is that when you know the "right" answer and disagree with it, you will protect your reputation by giving the "right" answer when asked about yourself. Asked about your unnamed neighbors, you'll most often reveal what you really believe, ascribing it to them, as you've no investment in protecting their reputation.
The election is 65 days away, although many will vote earlier. Much can happen in that time, but the trend lines now look favorable for Trump. Whoever you favor, please be sure to vote.
