Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Another Data Point

An interesting set of statistics have surfaced. The Washington Free Beacon reports:

The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), the gun industry's trade group, estimates that 17.1 million guns have been sold between January and August with 4.84 million Americans purchasing their first guns. The sales—especially to new owners—represent a significant shift in American attitudes on gun ownership.

So, nearly 5 million new gun owners, people who previously owned no guns. How many of those do you suppose will vote Democrat in November? Not zero, of course, but probably not many. 

The question becomes, how many new gun owners voted Democrat four years ago? How many Democrats have decided they feel threatened and need to arm themselves and, like the McCloskeys of St. Louis, become former Democrats who fear being "mugged by reality" in the guise of angry mobs or looters. Or just understand a defunded police force won't be much protection against burglars and vandals.

In a fifty-fifty nation, the default guess is that half of that 5 million voted Democrat last time and most of those won't this time, say 2 million new Trump voters. That number isn't trivial, particularly as everyone of those buyers is of voting age, no minors included.