Professor Alexander Motyl writes for 19fortyfive.com about the possibility of a coup deposing Putin in Russia. Motyl references Edward Luttwak’s 1968 book, Coup d’Etat. A Practical Handbook, which analyzed prior successful and unsuccessful coup attempts. Luttwak believes the following conditions are necessary for a coup to succeed.
First, the social and economic conditions of the target country must be such as to confine political participation to a small fraction of the population. Second, the target state must be substantially independent, and the influence of foreign powers in its internal political life must be relatively limited. Finally, the target state must have a political center.
Motyl continues:
When these conditions are present, as they are in Russia, coups are possible. For a coup to happen, however, its plotters must also control or neutralize the state bureaucracy and its security forces, “while at the same time using [the machinery of state] to impose … control on the country at large.” (emphasis added)
The column is worth your time.
