As long-time readers know, George (not Tom) Friedman is a favorite international affairs author. Writing at his Geopolitical Futures website, he predicts a less-than-stellar future for China. Some key insights:
The United States recently said that it would defend Taiwan in the event China invades it. More interesting is that Japan, a country that hasn’t undertaken military action since 1945, said the same.
The Chinese economic miracle depended on exports to generate domestic capital. But for a variety of reasons, demand for its exports is shrinking, which has conspired with other issues to destabilize China’s financial system.
The military coalition arrayed against China is unlikely to start a war, while Beijing would be facing a dangerous coalition if it started one itself.
China is also increasingly isolated. Months ago, it had formed an alliance of sorts with Russia. It was never clear how that alliance would benefit either nation, but now we’ll never know, thanks to Russia’s so far unsuccessful invasion of Ukraine.
China can no longer afford to help Russia politically or economically, and Russia cannot afford to help China militarily. The sum of all this is that the U.S. has reemerged as a global hegemon, even though it really never disappeared.
Media in the U.S. didn’t report that Japan would also defend Taiwan against China, though I’m relatively certain Friedman has it right. That’s a big deal, probably much noted in Asia.
