Various leaked intelligence reports have Russian President-for-Life V. Putin ailing, perhaps dying, and this information (if that is what it is) begins to be known inside Russia. Writing for the website 19fortyfive.com, professor Alexander Motyl asks what happens after Putin is no more?
Putin’s successors will, like Lenin’s and Stalin’s, probably divide into hard- and soft-liners. In normal circumstances of relative political and economic stability, who would win would be a toss-up. But conditions in today’s Russia are anything but normal. The economy is in freefall thanks to Western sanctions. And the war against Ukraine is almost certain not to end in a Russian victory.
Other things being equal—and of course, they never are—these conditions will favor a soft-liner willing to embark on some reforms, end the war, and repair relations with the West. Putin’s comrades know this and are probably planning their next moves accordingly.
Hard-liners probably understand that the longer Putin remains in power and the economy and war continue to deteriorate, the worse are their chances. Coups are now not just thinkable, but probably even inevitable—especially as the U.S. intelligence community also affirmed that Putin was the target of an assassination attempt in March.
All the United States can realistically do is prepare for the power struggle, recognize that Russia is likely to become a very unstable place very soon, and reinforce its ties to Russia’s immediate neighbors, who, for better or for worse, will have to bear the brunt of Russia’s descent into instability.
As Mort Sahl would quip, with an evil smirk, "the future ... lies ahead." As we've noted, being an autocrat is like grabbing a tiger by the tail. The hard part - letting go - is nearly always fatal.
