Thursday, June 9, 2022

M Disses Macron

The British and French have made taking a dim view of each other’s policies a cliche. Normally in the U.S. we find the British view more aligned with our own interests. 

The Association of European Journalists reprints a Financial Times article (behind paywall) which is yet another example of both tendencies. In it, former MI-6 chief John Sawers (M in the Bond films) writes that French President Macron is "playing a risky game" with regard to Putin and the Ukraine invasion.

French president Emmanuel Macron has said that it is important not to “humiliate” Russia over its invasion.

The problem is that a ceasefire now would lock in Russia’s military gains on the ground. There is no reason to think that Vladimir Putin would agree to pull back.

Ukraine’s leaders want to fight on, and they certainly do not want a ceasefire now, at what could well be the high-water mark of Russia’s military advance.

It is striking that Macron has not bothered to visit Kyiv in the more than 100 days since the war began, while he has kept in frequent telephone contact with Putin. French companies have been the most reluctant to leave Russia.

If another round of European diplomacy leaves Russia once again sitting on its military gains in Ukraine, then Putin will regain political strength at home and feel empowered to launch new military adventures in the future.

Macron might argue not humiliating Putin is the quid pro quo for avoiding nuclear war in Europe, a goal most would share. Sawers argues that humiliation is a reasonable price to pay for invading a neighboring nation, and not winning. And many would agree we should punish aggression. 

I'm inclined to agree with M.