Saturday, July 31, 2021

5 Bug Out Destinations

Where to go to survive a collapse of human civilization, or alternatively where you are most likely to survive one if already there. The Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University (ARU) looked at these related questions and identified five places - all islands - where you have a better chance of surviving. See the article at ZME Science, hat tip to RealClearScience for the link.

If you guessed New Zealand was their number one choice, you'd be correct. It is essentially at the end of the earth, has a variety of climates, a first world level civilization, somewhat socialist politics (no plus), and isn't overpopulated. 

I suspect New Zealand's primary advantages are that (a) it is too far away to be successfully invaded by low tech post-apocalyptic folk sailing repurposed, ramshackle cargo ships and (b) there are no targets there anyone would waste a nuke on. Don't knock it, both are huge advantages. 

The problem with New Zealand is getting there after the balloon goes up. Ocean-spanning flights will probably be the first to end when their pilots refuse to leave NZ and fly back home to chaos.

The other four locations are Iceland, Ireland, the U.K., and the southern Australian island of Tasmania. I see real problems with the U.K. and Ireland being too close to the European mainland. Both, however, have well-established first world infrastructure and industry plus reasonably stable governments. 

Tasmania shares many characteristics with New Zealand, but may have too little manufacturing capability to independently maintain a civilized lifestyle. That leaves Iceland, which has the distinct advantages of distance, geothermal heating and darn good fishing grounds, but little manufacturing and a climate not conducive to growing crops.

I'm not clear how the scholars figure these civilizations can sustain themselves minus imported petroleum. Only the U.K. has an indigenous (offshore) oil supply. Going back to coal, wood and steam isn't impossible, and peat one supposes, but no modern society can function without motor vehicles and aircraft, neither of which runs on solid fuel.