Wednesday, July 21, 2021

The Strange Cases of OR and OH

More thoughts about who is moving from and to which states. When the same state appears on United's most-moving-in list, and U-Haul's most-moving-out list, or vice versa, something strange is happening.

Oregon is on United's most-moved-to list and on U-Haul's most-moved-away-from list. Meanwhile Ohio is on U-Haul's most-moved-to list and on United's most-moved-away-from list.

If my thesis is correct - that United moves and U-Haul moves represent households from different social classes or strata - what would we conclude? That the affluent are moving to Oregon while the less affluent are moving away from Oregon. Similarly, the more affluent are leaving Ohio while the less affluent are moving to Ohio.

I can make sense of the Oregon numbers. People selling homes in CA are getting very large prices for same, leaving them somewhat affluent. As they move to OR they bid up home prices in OR, which tends to drive the less affluent to move elsewhere. 

Perhaps the reverse is happening in Ohio, people who can afford to do so are leaving. The empty dwellings they leave behind are depressing home prices or rents so the less affluent can afford to live there. Of this scenario I am less certain.