Tuesday, October 24, 2023

A Proposed Ukraine Policy

Everybody is thinking about Israel right now, which paradoxically has me thinking about Ukraine. Many on the political right are arguing that the US has no realistic goals in Ukraine and, lacking them, should stop funding the war there.

I want to argue for continued funding, perhaps at a lower level. I make some assumptions which I ask you to examine and, if found sound, agree with.

I assume Ukraine cannot defeat Russia given the relative sizes of the populations, economies, and land masses of the two countries. I also assume Russia cannot defeat Ukraine presuming we continue to provide weapons, munitions, and intel. Putin seems unwilling to put his nation on a total war footing, with universal conscription, rationing, all the steps actually defeating Ukraine would take.

Our US goal should be providing sufficient support to keep Ukraine fighting, holding Russia to a standstill. Just that and nothing more. We obviously do not want to announce this goal as it is likely to demoralize Ukrainian fighting forces. 

Eventually the Russians will get tired, discouraged and go home. They did this in Afghanistan years before we did the same thing there. The Russians have a home to go to. The Ukes, like the Afghans, are home and unlikely to "go" anywhere.

Today our role vis-a-vis Ukraine is like Iran's role viz-a-viz Gaza, we are fighting a war with proxy troops using mostly our checkbook. We are losing dollars, of which we have many. The Russians are losing rubles and men, neither of which is in good supply. We can afford to do this for a long time, and we should.