Monday, May 18, 2020

New Poll Results

Today, The Hill reports a new study of voter feelings.
One-third of Democratic voters believe the sexual harassment, assault allegations against Joe Biden, a new Hill-HarrisX survey finds.

Thirty-four percent of Democrats in the May 11-12 poll believe the harassment claims made by former Senate staffer, Tara Reade, and 30 percent believe the sexual assault accusations.
If you assume slightly more than half of those believing-Reade Democrats polled are women, you have to ask yourself how many of them will decide they can’t vote for either Biden or Trump. I’d guess about half of the half, say 8%.

Now ask yourself what proportion of the “Bernie bros” won’t vote for Biden? Add those two together and factor in the Trump lead in battleground states. You’ll like the answer, but many unforetold things can happen in the next six months.

If we’re making this calculation, you can be sure the DNC is doing the same. Don’t be surprised if Biden is urged to step aside.

That action, of course, is contingent on there being someone more electable who can step in. Who might that be?

Granny-killing Cuomo? Convict-loving Newsom? Someone who ran and was turned down by primary voters? The horizon is surprisingly free of white knights riding to the rescue of the Democrats.