Monday, May 11, 2020

Ripples of Consequences

Forbes is a long-time go-to source for business insights. One of their contributors, Stephen McBride, has identified three industries he believes will not make a comeback after Covid-19 has abated. They are (1) movie theaters, (2) department stores, and (3) office space operators. I wonder if he might not add cruise lines, but that’s just a guess.

If McBride is correct about “office space operators” which is to say landlords, it also has big-time implications for those who build and furnish office buildings.

Think of the long-term implications for urban home prices. If people don’t need to commute to work everyday, why live in high-rises or on cramped suburban lots? The premium for being close to rapid transit will be much less, although being within an hour’s drive of a serious airport will likely continue to have relevance for many.

Some enterprising science fiction author should be writing a tale about what happens when high-rise cities are literally abandoned and stand there like Mayan pyramids, overgrown relics of an earlier age, barely understood by the builders’ great grandchildren living nearby.