Wednesday, January 10, 2024

Long Thoughts About Ukraine

Europeans and Americans are tiring of supporting the fighting in Ukraine. You see columns arguing Ukraine cannot defeat Russia; in any absolute terms, this is probably an accurate assessment.

You see others arguing we need to reassess our commitment to Ukraine’s get-it-all-back goals, and perhaps force a negotiated settlement giving Russia some of what it has conquered. Today’s RealClearWorld has three different “takes” on what to do about Ukraine, here, here, and here.

Perhaps it is time to remind readers of COTTonLINE’s view of the subject. Taking a long view, Ukraine doesn’t have to defeat Russia. They merely have to refuse to be defeated. Eventually Russia will tire of an unending foreign war and, one way or another, go home. Ukraine is home, has no where else to go, and like the Afghans, can simply wear out the Russians.

Chances are, Russians going home will happen in conjunction with regime change. Not because we caused it but because they brought it on themselves through its government “writing checks that its people won’t indefinitely cash,” to use a popular metaphor. Particularly since it is clear Ukraine has no intent of Invading Russia.