Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Where We Stand Today

On several occasions I've written the only path to the GOP nomination for anybody not named Trump, is if some natural or legal force takes Trump out of contention. Meanwhile the months have been spooling past and, if you are Haley or DeSantis, the time left for some such force to act is vanishing at a perilous rate.

A realist would rate both of their campaigns nearing the point at which additional effort is irrelevant, if not actively counterproductive. Haley has a shot in NH; not a great shot, but a shot nevertheless. 

I'm not convinced DeSantis got much of a boost from IA, he isn't polling well in NH, and next after that is SC which is Haley's home state. His path forward is unclear, does he poll better than Trump anywhere