Kotkin: Sprawl Beats Density

Writing OpEd for The Los Angeles Times, Joel Kotkin compares the LA and NYC models of how a big city can be configured, as seen through the lens of the Covid-19 pandemic.

For nearly a century, Los Angeles’ urban form has infuriated urbanists who prefer a more concentrated model built around a single central core.

Yet, in the COVID-19 pandemic, our much-maligned dispersed urban pattern has proven a major asset. Los Angeles and its surrounding suburbs have had a considerable number of cases, but overall this highly diverse, globally engaged region has managed to keep rates of infection well below that of dense, transit-dependent New York City.

As of April 24, Los Angeles County, with nearly 2 million more residents than the five boroughs, had 850 coronavirus-related deaths compared with 16,646 in New York City.

My back-of-envelope calculation suggests NYC has had 20 times the deaths of LA County, with fewer people. Even the math-challenged can understand those numbers. Urban sprawl is healthier for people, if not for the planet, than is urban density, end of discussion.