RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende has a different explanation, one that comes naturally to a professional election analyst like himself. He writes:
The coronavirus is experienced in a fundamentally different way in densely populated urban areas than it is in exurban areas. (snip) In non-urban areas, social distancing doesn’t necessarily change one’s life much.This relates to what we wrote on Tuesday. All of which reminds me of a wise saying - Miles' law - I learned years ago while doing consulting in the DC area, "Where you stand depends on where you sit." Trende has essentially modified this to read, "Where you stand depends on where you live," an obvious extension of the original.
If you live in the type of densely populated urban areas where coronavirus fears are at the forefront of your mind as you go about your daily business, you’re also disproportionately likely to be a Democratic voter. On the other hand, voters in rural and exurban areas are more likely to be Republican, and are simply experiencing a different reality right now.