Tuesday, March 15, 2022

A Speculation

The other DrC has been looking at various recent photos of Vladimir Putin and has concluded, tentatively, that he isn't well. Others have reached the same conclusion. I'm less certain, and frankly, no American and damned few Russians know for sure.

For purposes of discussion, let's assume he has received a diagnosis that is terminal in the medium run, say 5 years give or take. ALS, Parkinson's, and many types of cancer would fit, and there are others. 

My immediate conclusion is that this would make him much more dangerous. It would explain his "rolling the dice" on Ukraine when and how he did.

Putin has at his disposal the world's largest country and third largest military. And he has, we are assuming, something less than 5 years to establish his place in the history of the Rus. So, he takes his best shot at reuniting at minimum Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, plus maybe Moldova and Georgia. 

If he wins he'll be remembered as 'Tsar' Vladimir. If he loses, maybe as a martyr who gave his all in a vain attempt to reunite the Rus. 

The thing about being an autocrat is that there is no retirement plan, you ride the tiger until you die - in office or being deposed. Recent examples include the Kims, Castro, Ghadafi, Chavez, Saddam Hussein, and CeauČ™escu. 

Putin acts like someone who doesn't have time on his side. He has taken the kind of risk somebody already facing a terminal diagnosis is likely to find worthwhile. A lot of other people with no such diagnosis - Russians and Ukrainians - will die early as a result.