Several times a day I check the news feed to see if Kyiv has fallen. I assume that will be the major hinge-point in this invasion.
As long as Kyiv is in Ukraine's hands or remains contested, it is still an invasion and a plucky defender fighting off the bad guys. Once Kyiv falls, assuming it does, then the events in Ukraine become something else.
Become what? Perhaps Ukraine's army fighting rear-guard actions in the west of the country, retreating toward Poland and Romania. Perhaps a resistance like the Maquis fought against the Nazis in France. Perhaps nothing much at all, a sullen, beaten country with a Russian-speaking puppet government, pledging a fealty to Moscow sincerely felt by few.
The war begins its fourth week today, and so far Kyiv is still unconquered. That is a real accomplishment, and the Russians no longer look 12 feet tall.
Assuming Putin's minions eventually eliminate the Ukraine government, their "victory" may well prove pyrrhic - too expensive by half. We will watch with interest what transpires, and hope to remain an onlooker, rather than a participant.